Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T19:51:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
F7 0xf779…7e92 other 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 24d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL −$42 (-8%) realized −$9 · open −$33
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +44% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +31% what you keep after slip
Net edge+31%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$86per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$65now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$98
14 days−$197
30 days−$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% −$105
sports 29% −$124
world 10% +$152
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+30.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -14.9% -23.0% 50% 50% -42.6%
≤30d 4 +44.3% +30.6% 50% 50% -19.2%
≤90d 4 +44.3% +30.6% 50% 50% -19.2%
all 4 +44.3% +30.6% 50% 50% -19.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +30.6% 50% -19.2%
10% +18.1% 50% -26.9%
15% +6.7% 50% -34.0%
20% -3.8% 50% -40.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +44% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$111 vs −$133 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$65
Realized−$9
Unrealized−$33
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)4 / 6
History coverage24d
Avg bet$86
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Yes 30¢ 26¢ $48 $41 −$7 (-15%)
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Yes 55¢ 26¢ $50 $24 −$26 (-52%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $170 −$168 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $100 +$70 +70%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $100 −$99 -99%
Will Ukraine win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $50 +$152 +307%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 30¢ $49 1h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $51 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $170 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $100 7d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 65¢ $100 9d
Will Ukraine win on 2026-05-31? SELL Yes 100¢ $202 24d
Will Ukraine win on 2026-05-31? BUY Yes 24¢ $50 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $65.04 · official $65.49 (match) · 8 history records