Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:58:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F7 0xf779…5858 other 48 markets active 5h ago coverage 605d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$28 (-1%) realized −$28 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate11%5W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$115per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$8
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 83% −$12
other 13% −$7
sports 2% −$10
tech 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
world 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 18 -5.7% -14.7% 6% 0% -12.6%
≤90d 36 -1.1% -10.5% 6% 3% -9.7%
all 47 -3.1% -12.4% 11% 2% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 2% -10.0%
10% -20.7% 2% -18.6%
15% -28.4% 2% -26.5%
20% -35.4% 2% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 90% · top 2 99% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

605d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized−$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses5 / 42
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)47 / 48
History coverage605d
Avg bet$115
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $6 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 16 $12 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $8 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $58 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $12 $0 -0%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $7 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $11 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $10 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $10 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 03 $10 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 02 $10 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? Jun 02 $23 $0 +0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $12 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $10 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $10 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $13 $0 -0%
Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 23 $13 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 18 $62 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 13 $58 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $60 $0 -0%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $11 +$7 +65%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $55 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 07 $52 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $54 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 02 $55 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 01 $57 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $55 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $51 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $108 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $52 $0 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 21 $55 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Apr 21 $56 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 20 $52 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $56 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 18 $57 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $180 in February? Mar 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Feb 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Feb 09 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 17 $12 $0 -1%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 17 $47 −$1 -2%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 12 $33 −$1 -2%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 24 $5 $0 -2%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 10 $293 +$1 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 31 $1,141 −$4 -0%
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Oct 28 $1,166 −$5 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 26 $1,551 −$4 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $6 5h
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $6 6h
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $12 28h
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $12 30h
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $8 2d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $8 2d
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? BUY No 100¢ $20 3d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $6 6d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $6 6d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $12 6d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $12 7d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $7 8d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $7 8d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Philadelphia Phillies 52¢ $8 8d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $11 9d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $11 9d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 11d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 11d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 12d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 13d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $10 13d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $10 13d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 15d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 15d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $12 16d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $12 16d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 17d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 17d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 17d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.76 · official $19.76 (match) · 268 history records