Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T15:43:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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F7 0xf771…aac7 crypto 1527 markets active 0h ago coverage 63d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 62d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$20 (+1%) realized +$19 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate30%452W / 1074L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day38.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$3
14 days+$62
30 days−$81
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$70
weather 1% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 180 +0.9% -8.7% 34% 34% -8.0%
≤30d 1001 -1.8% -11.1% 24% 24% -14.0%
≤90d 1526 +2.0% -7.7% 30% 27% -11.9%
all 1526 +2.0% -7.7% 30% 27% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.7% 27% -11.9%
10% ← realistic here -16.5% 25% -20.3%
15% -24.6% 23% -28.0%
20% -32.0% 21% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×2.24 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$19
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses452 / 1074
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1526 / 1527
History coverage63d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day38.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1526 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Up 52¢ 78¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+51%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 110 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.57 · official $1.11 (match) · 3407 history records