Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T19:59:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F7 0xf76d…4052 sports 245 markets active 1h ago coverage 48d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$37 (+0%) realized +$38 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate59%142W / 97L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day6.7pace
Fees−$56est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$114now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$169
7 days+$90
14 days−$81
30 days−$285
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% −$41
other 31% −$19
crypto 3% +$44
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 +8.7% -1.6% 70% 67% -6.1%
≤30d 181 +0.2% -9.3% 60% 58% -13.8%
≤90d 239 +1.4% -8.2% 59% 57% -9.7%
all 239 +1.4% -8.2% 59% 57% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 57% -9.7%
10% -17.0% 48% -18.3%
15% -25.0% 40% -26.2%
20% -32.4% 33% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$26 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$114
Realized+$38
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses142 / 97
Est. fees paid−$56
Open positions3
Markets (closed)239 / 245
History coverage48d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day6.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 239 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Yes 31¢ 30¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 70 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 27 $30 +$28 +93%
UFC Fight Night: Michel Pereira vs. Shara Magomedov (Middleweight, Mai Jun 27 $10 +$3 +31%
UFC Fight Night: Nazim Sadykhov vs. Matheus Camilo (Lightweight, Main Jun 27 $30 −$30 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Asu Almabayev vs. Charles Johnson (Flyweight, Main Ca Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Ikram Aliskerov vs. Brunno Ferreira (Middleweight, Ma Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Julius Walker vs. Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev (Light Heavy Jun 27 $20 +$4 +18%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $10 +$17 +165%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $101 +$20 +20%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 27 $10 +$25 +250%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $41 +$30 +73%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $30 +$7 +23%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $130 +$42 +32%
Dallas Wings vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 26 $113 +$12 +11%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $15 +$20 +134%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $20 +$9 +44%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $121 +$13 +11%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $20 +$4 +20%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $41 +$30 +73%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $41 −$40 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $66 +$21 +32%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $65 +$16 +24%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $40 +$15 +38%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $82 +$45 +55%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $49 +$33 +67%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $240 −$239 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $208 +$33 +16%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $44 +$23 +52%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $20 +$30 +146%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $11 +$7 +65%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $137 +$11 +8%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $40 +$18 +46%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $73 +$45 +62%
Washington Mystics vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 22 $24 −$24 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $40 −$40 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $40 −$40 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $109 +$12 +11%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $76 +$33 +43%
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, Jun 21 $20 +$6 +31%
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Andre Fili vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Featherweight, Main Jun 21 $10 +$6 +62%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $32 +$15 +46%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $35 +$26 +73%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $89 +$9 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Rafael Fiziev 51¢ $30 1h
UFC Fight Night: Nazim Sadykhov vs. Matheus Camilo (Lightweight, Main BUY Nazim Sadykhov 66¢ $20 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $100 2h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 2h
UFC Fight Night: Asu Almabayev vs. Charles Johnson (Flyweight, Main Ca BUY Charles Johnson 26¢ $10 2h
UFC Fight Night: Ikram Aliskerov vs. Brunno Ferreira (Middleweight, Ma BUY Brunno Ferreira 30¢ $10 3h
UFC Fight Night: Julius Walker vs. Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev (Light Heavy BUY Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev 84¢ $20 5h
UFC Fight Night: Nazim Sadykhov vs. Matheus Camilo (Lightweight, Main BUY Nazim Sadykhov 63¢ $10 5h
UFC Fight Night: Michel Pereira vs. Shara Magomedov (Middleweight, Mai BUY Shara Magomedov 76¢ $10 5h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 83¢ $101 17h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 17h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 20h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 57¢ $41 20h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 77¢ $70 24h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 81¢ $30 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 73¢ $30 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 73¢ $30 25h
Dallas Wings vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY Las Vegas Aces 90¢ $113 41h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 69¢ $20 43h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 42¢ $15 43h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $15 43h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 100¢ $64 43h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 89¢ $24 46h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 100¢ $24 46h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 90¢ $97 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 83¢ $20 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 58¢ $41 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 57¢ $41 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $114.48 · official $114.81 (match) · 458 history records