Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T16:52:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F7 0xf76a…b506 other 377 markets active 1h ago coverage 612d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,147 (-4%) realized −$1,120 · open −$27
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate35%117W / 221L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$152est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$90now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$10
14 days−$15
30 days−$224
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 31% −$483
other 22% −$281
finance 19% −$175
politics 13% −$46
world 7% −$105
crypto 3% −$59
tech 2% −$69
culture 2% −$11
weather 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-19.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +23.3% +11.5% 40% 30% -8.3%
≤30d 67 -17.6% -25.5% 34% 15% -14.3%
≤90d 253 -14.3% -22.5% 32% 13% -14.1%
all 338 -11.4% -19.9% 35% 18% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.9% 18% -13.7%
10% -27.5% 12% -21.9%
15% -34.5% 9% -29.5%
20% -41.0% 7% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$9 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

612d coverage
Net worth$90
Realized−$1,120
Unrealized−$27
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses117 / 221
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$152
Open positions32
Markets (closed)338 / 377
History coverage612d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 32 History 338 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gukesh Dommaraju win the 2026 World Chess Championship? Yes 37¢ 34¢ $37 $34 −$4 (-9%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $5 $10 +$5 (+103%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+20%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+17%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+6%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-6%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-41%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-25%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-56%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-31%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-36%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-36%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-10%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $3 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-30%)
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-62%)
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-70%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-83%)
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-83%)
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-88%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $235 $0 -0%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Jun 20 $247 −$1 -0%
Will 100T make a roster change before August? Jun 19 $14 $0 -0%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $128 +$1 +1%
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? Jun 15 $48 −$5 -11%
Will Ronaldo play with Ronaldo Jr. before the end of 2026? Jun 15 $10 −$3 -32%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 39 and 41 million views on day 2 Jun 15 $9 +$9 +109%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +60%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 +$4 +128%
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? Jun 13 $5 −$1 -21%
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $8 +$8 +97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $12 −$5 -43%
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 12 $16 −$6 -39%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $377 +$5 +1%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +20%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Geek Fam ID vs ONIC (BO5) - MPL Indonesia Pl Jun 12 $5 $0 +3%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 12 $215 +$34 +16%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$3 +33%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 11 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group Jun 10 $150 −$2 -2%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Gro Jun 10 $19 −$5 -25%
LoL: RED Canids vs Fluxo W7M (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 08 $190 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $42 −$14 -33%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 08 $98 −$3 -3%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 07 $152 −$16 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 8? Jun 07 $24 $0 +0%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 19, 2026? Jun 03 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 02 $32 $0 -0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $93 on June 2? Jun 02 $3 −$3 -100%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 2? Jun 02 $1 $0 -36%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 2? Jun 02 $3 −$1 -36%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on June 1? Jun 01 $0 $0 -100%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on June 1? Jun 01 $61 +$6 +10%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Alliance (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playo May 28 $260 −$111 -43%
Will Propr launch a token by June 30, 2027? May 28 $34 −$26 -76%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Verso Time vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - BetBoom Ris May 27 $0 $0 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 27 $0 $0 -100%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs NIP (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 27 $165 −$8 -5%
Tea FDV above $400M one day after launch May 27 $3 −$2 -62%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 27 $0 $0 -100%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs magic (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Omega Esports vs Twisted Minds PH (BO5) - MP May 27 $5 −$4 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 26 $2 −$2 -78%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Aura Farmers vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BetBoom May 26 $3 −$2 -60%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 26 $2 −$1 -59%
Will Javokhir Sindarov win the 2026 World Chess Championship? May 26 $130 +$2 +2%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Suplex Team vs The Soulless Team (BO3) - Bet May 25 $1 −$1 -69%
Solstice FDV above $300M one day after launch? May 25 $14 $0 +2%
Solstice FDV above $250M one day after launch? May 25 $32 +$2 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL FURIA 94¢ $235 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY FURIA 94¢ $235 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London SELL Leviatán Esports 92¢ $230 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London SELL EDward Gaming 7¢ $17 2h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY EDward Gaming 7¢ $6 2h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY EDward Gaming 7¢ $0 2h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY EDward Gaming 7¢ $11 2h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 92¢ $230 2h
Will Rick Jackson win the Georgia Republican Governor Primary Runoff b BUY No 4¢ $0 13h
Will Rick Jackson win the Georgia Republican Governor Primary Runoff b SELL No 4¢ $3 20h
Will Rick Jackson win the Georgia Republican Governor Primary Runoff b BUY No 4¢ $1 21h
Will Rick Jackson win the Georgia Republican Governor Primary Runoff b BUY No 4¢ $3 25h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 28h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06- BUY 13¢ $5 28h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on BUY 20¢ $5 28h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AN BUY 7¢ $5 28h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 15¢ $5 28h
Will 100T make a roster change before August? SELL No 36¢ $7 28h
Will Rick Jackson win the Georgia Republican Governor Primary Runoff b SELL Yes 93¢ $46 28h
Will Rick Jackson win the Georgia Republican Governor Primary Runoff b BUY Yes 93¢ $43 29h
Will Rick Jackson win the Georgia Republican Governor Primary Runoff b BUY Yes 93¢ $4 29h
Will 100T make a roster change before August? BUY No 37¢ $7 29h
Will 100T make a roster change before August? SELL No 37¢ $7 29h
Will 100T make a roster change before August? BUY No 34¢ $7 29h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? SELL Down 96¢ $96 3d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 95¢ $95 3d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? SELL Up 4¢ $0 3d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 5¢ $1 3d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? SELL Down 93¢ $33 3d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 91¢ $33 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $89.62 · official $109.62 · 1899 history records