Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:39:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F7 0xf767…fcdb crypto 28 markets active 7d ago coverage 52d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$20 (-1%) realized −$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate39%11W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$89per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$2
14 days−$11
30 days−$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 96% −$15
crypto 4% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-26.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 12 -25.5% -32.6% 33% 17% -10.4%
≤90d 28 -18.6% -26.4% 39% 32% -10.3%
all 28 -18.6% -26.4% 39% 32% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.4% 32% -10.3%
10% -33.4% 32% -18.9%
15% -39.9% 32% -26.7%
20% -45.7% 32% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses11 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)28 / 28
History coverage52d
Avg bet$89
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 28 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 15 $462 +$2 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 08 $1,810 −$12 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 31 $112 −$4 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 30 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 30 $39 −$3 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 30 $8 −$3 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 30 $5 +$5 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET May 21 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET May 20 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET May 20 $3 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET May 19 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET May 18 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET May 18 $3 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET May 18 $3 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET May 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET May 16 $3 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET May 16 $3 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Apr 20 $3 +$4 +131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Apr 20 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin above 77,400 on April 20, 5PM ET? Apr 20 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Apr 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Apr 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Apr 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Apr 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin above 77,600 on April 20, 4PM ET? Apr 20 $1 −$1 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Apr 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Apr 20 $1 +$1 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Apr 20 $1 +$1 +89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 32¢ $64 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 33¢ $66 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 35¢ $70 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 35¢ $2 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 65¢ $130 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 59¢ $118 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 40¢ $80 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 35¢ $70 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 62¢ $124 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 69¢ $138 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $60 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 68¢ $136 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 71¢ $142 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $144 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 69¢ $138 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 70¢ $140 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 69¢ $138 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 29¢ $58 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 71¢ $142 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $91 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 71¢ $85 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 71¢ $4 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $62 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 66¢ $132 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 33¢ $19 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $18 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $132 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $62 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 156 history records