Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T16:49:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F7 0xf764…53b7 crypto 1220 markets active 0h ago coverage 33d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 32d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (76 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,758 (-4%) realized −$3,758 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate72%973W / 374L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day76.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 33d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$2,787
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (76 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-25.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 240 -52.5% -57.1% 45% 3% -30.9%
≤30d 1286 -19.2% -26.9% 71% 7% -16.6%
≤90d 1347 -17.8% -25.7% 72% 8% -16.1%
all 1347 -17.8% -25.7% 72% 8% -16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover76.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.7% 8% -16.1%
10% ← realistic here -32.8% 2% -24.1%
15% -39.3% 1% -31.5%
20% -45.2% 1% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$32 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,758
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses973 / 374
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1347 / 1220
History coverage33d ⚠
Avg bet$76
Trades / day76.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1347 Trades
no open positions (359 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 20 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 20 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 20 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 20 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 20 $126 −$126 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 20 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 20 $126 −$126 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 20 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 20 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 20 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 20 $96 −$96 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 20 $126 −$126 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 20 $109 −$109 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 20 $94 −$94 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 20 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 20 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 20 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $200 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $200 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $200 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $200 55m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $200 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $200 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $164 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $12 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $100 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $100 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $98 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $62 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records