Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:15:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F7 0xf764…61e6 sports 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$2,907 (-18%) realized −$1,490 · open −$1,417
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate42%8W / 11L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$827per market
Trades / day8.6pace
Fees−$355est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$7,075
crypto 6% −$147
other 4% +$863
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-21.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -13.6% -21.9% 42% 32% -46.8%
≤30d 19 -13.6% -21.9% 42% 32% -46.8%
≤90d 19 -13.6% -21.9% 42% 32% -46.8%
all 19 -13.6% -21.9% 42% 32% -46.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.6 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.9% 32% -46.8%
10% ← realistic here -29.3% 32% -51.9%
15% -36.2% 32% -56.5%
20% -42.4% 21% -60.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 54% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -41% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -41% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$815) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -38% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$276 vs −$650 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$1,490
Unrealized−$1,417
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses8 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$355
Open positions1
Markets (closed)19 / 20
History coverage5d
Avg bet$827
Trades / day8.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova Jessica Pegula 28¢ 0¢ $1,420 $3 −$1,417 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul Jun 21 $915 −$388 -42%
Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 21 $531 +$245 +46%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Emma Navarro Jun 21 $715 +$330 +46%
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Katerina Siniakova Jun 21 $1,177 −$461 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 20 $378 −$378 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 20 $75 +$204 +272%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $583 +$868 +149%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 20 $556 +$27 +5%
Set 2 Winner: Altmaier vs Tiafoe Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 20 $65 −$65 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Alexandra Eala Jun 20 $2,214 −$2,214 -100%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $1,395 −$1,395 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Jun 20 $1,685 −$1,685 -100%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 20 $557 +$281 +50%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 19 $458 −$458 -100%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 19 $212 +$246 +116%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 19 $815 +$2 +0%
Set 1 Winner: Sabalenka vs Bartunkova Jun 19 $95 −$95 -100%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $100 −$5 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Jessica Pegula 5¢ $103 40m
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Jessica Pegula 23¢ $103 1h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Jessica Pegula 47¢ $1,245 1h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova SELL Jessica Pegula 63¢ $4,877 1h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Jessica Pegula 32¢ $2,565 1h
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul SELL Francisco Cerundolo 84¢ $2,191 2h
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul BUY Tommy Paul 11¢ $400 2h
Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe SELL Frances Tiafoe 100¢ $776 3h
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul BUY Francisco Cerundolo 19¢ $515 3h
Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Frances Tiafoe 67¢ $531 3h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Emma Navarro SELL Marie Bouzkova 100¢ $1,046 4h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Emma Navarro BUY Marie Bouzkova 67¢ $715 6h
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Katerina Siniakova SELL Katerina Siniakova 20¢ $715 7h
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Katerina Siniakova BUY Katerina Siniakova 39¢ $424 7h
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Katerina Siniakova BUY Katerina Siniakova 21¢ $450 7h
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Katerina Siniakova BUY Katerina Siniakova 17¢ $303 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $280 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $75 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $378 19h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,451 20h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 39¢ $583 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $583 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $556 22h
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Daniel Altmaier 7¢ $65 24h
Set 2 Winner: Altmaier vs Tiafoe BUY Altmaier 12¢ $2 24h
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 21¢ $2,214 25h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Zverev 45¢ $556 26h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Zverev 66¢ $838 27h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo SELL Francisco Cerundolo 94¢ $838 27h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 61¢ $557 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.51 · official $2.52 (match) · 54 history records