Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:13:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F7 0xf763…d3b6 crypto 79 markets active 2h ago coverage 253d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$308 (+1%) realized +$299 · open +$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate97%73W / 2L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$326per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$932now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$4
14 days+$10
30 days+$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 50% +$132
economics 15% +$41
other 13% +$50
finance 7% +$12
world 6% +$26
tech 4% +$10
politics 4% +$19
sports 1% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.4% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 5 +1.2% -8.5% 100% 0% -8.5%
≤90d 14 +1.2% -8.4% 100% 0% -8.5%
all 75 +1.1% -8.5% 97% 0% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 0% -8.4%
10% -17.3% 0% -17.2%
15% -25.3% 0% -25.2%
20% -32.6% 0% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$561) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$0 · ×12.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×913.76 per $1 lost it wins $913.76
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

253d coverage
Net worth$932
Realized+$299
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses73 / 2
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)75 / 79
History coverage253d
Avg bet$326
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? No 99¢ 99¢ $396 $397 +$0 (+0%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.3T by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $339 $348 +$9 (+3%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? No 96¢ 96¢ $182 $182 −$0 (-0%)
Hyperliquid listed on Binance by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on last tr Jun 27 $137 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 23 $523 +$3 +1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 17 $770 +$6 +1%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 07 $379 +$15 +4%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 31 $522 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? May 26 $522 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 21 $345 +$1 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 19 $176 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? May 17 $171 +$4 +3%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 13 $359 +$16 +4%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr May 03 $345 $0 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 27 $678 +$10 +2%
Trump out as President by April 30? Apr 17 $184 +$3 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? Mar 31 $677 +$1 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Mar 26 $959 +$9 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of March? Mar 25 $750 +$2 +0%
Trump out as President by March 31? Mar 19 $734 +$16 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 March 2-8? Mar 08 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 March 2-8? Mar 05 $99 $0 -0%
Opinion FDV above $250M one day after launch? Mar 05 $98 +$1 +1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Feb 27 $98 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in February? Feb 22 $801 +$31 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in February? Feb 22 $732 +$1 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Feb 06 $988 +$4 +0%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2026 mee Feb 06 $107 +$1 +1%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of January? Feb 02 $1,191 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in January? Jan 28 $1,176 +$14 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 03 $240 +$1 +1%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jan 01 $1,018 +$23 +2%
Maduro out in 2025? Dec 30 $99 +$3 +3%
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? Dec 28 $51 +$2 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 23 $561 +$35 +6%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$10B one day after launch? Dec 22 $739 +$22 +3%
Will Base launch a token in 2025? Dec 13 $482 +$15 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 13 $226 +$17 +7%
Ethereum Fusaka upgrade implemented in 2025? Dec 05 $10 +$1 +5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in November? Nov 29 $86 +$1 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in November? Nov 29 $138 +$2 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 18 $261 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 in November? Nov 18 $99 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $145,000 in November? Nov 18 $99 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in November? Nov 18 $99 $0 +0%
Aster all time high by December 31? Nov 10 $81 +$5 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $114,000 on November 7? Nov 08 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $120,000 on November 7? Nov 08 $66 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120k November 3-9? Nov 07 $1,113 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,500 on November 5? Nov 06 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $4,400 on November 5? Nov 06 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,400 on November 5? Nov 06 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $250 on November 5? Nov 06 $10 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 96¢ $183 1h
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on last tr SELL No 100¢ $137 12h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.3T by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $340 2d
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on last tr BUY No 100¢ $137 2d
Hyperliquid listed on Binance by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $5 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $116 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $148 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $25 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $107 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $111 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $19 4d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $397 7d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 100¢ $397 10d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 99¢ $395 20d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Milwaukee Brewers 96¢ $379 21d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 99¢ $350 22d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 99¢ $25 22d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 99¢ $5 22d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $523 26d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL No 100¢ $523 27d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $522 32d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $522 33d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $522 37d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $9 37d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $336 37d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? SELL No 100¢ $176 39d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? BUY No 99¢ $176 41d
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $176 41d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 98¢ $376 44d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $23 45d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $931.74 · official $931.74 (match) · 215 history records