Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:42:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F7 0xf763…a0aa sports 73 markets active 1h ago coverage 40d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$417 (+2%) realized +$417 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate82%60W / 13L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$270per market
Trades / day34.3pace
Fees−$373est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$124
7 days+$398
14 days+$398
30 days+$399
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% +$353
other 12% +$42
world 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 66 +2.6% -7.1% 85% 12% -7.2%
≤30d 71 +1.1% -8.6% 83% 11% -7.2%
≤90d 73 -0.3% -9.8% 82% 11% -7.2%
all 73 -0.3% -9.8% 82% 11% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.8% 11% -7.2%
10% ← realistic here -18.4% 3% -16.1%
15% -26.3% 3% -24.2%
20% -33.5% 1% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
9.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$26 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.17 per $1 lost it wins $2.17
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$417
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses60 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$373
Open positions0
Markets (closed)73 / 73
History coverage40d
Avg bet$270
Trades / day34.3
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 73 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 21 $671 +$20 +3%
Spread: Spain (-5.5) Jun 21 $1,395 +$23 +2%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 21 $110 +$41 +38%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 21 $795 +$20 +3%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $75 +$2 +2%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $388 +$11 +3%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 21 $790 +$11 +1%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,013 +$14 +1%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $507 +$12 +2%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 20 $533 +$2 +0%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 20 $179 +$5 +3%
Will UD Almería win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $17 $0 -2%
Spread: Netherlands (-4.5) Jun 20 $382 +$24 +6%
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) Jun 20 $282 +$3 +1%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 20 $483 +$8 +2%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $479 −$90 -19%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $300 +$4 +1%
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) Jun 20 $391 +$23 +6%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 20 $667 −$23 -3%
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) Jun 20 $154 +$91 +59%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $586 −$48 -8%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $357 +$44 +12%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $647 +$14 +2%
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) Jun 19 $150 +$2 +1%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 19 $851 −$108 -13%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $542 +$18 +3%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 19 $150 −$3 -2%
Spread: Canada (-5.5) Jun 18 $469 +$72 +15%
Spread: Canada (-4.5) Jun 18 $135 −$14 -10%
Spread: Canada (-3.5) Jun 18 $573 +$94 +16%
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Jun 18 $26 +$2 +9%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $164 +$9 +6%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $626 −$47 -8%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 18 $300 +$1 +0%
Spread: Switzerland (-3.5) Jun 18 $150 +$15 +10%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $590 +$14 +2%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $150 +$11 +7%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $458 +$5 +1%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $579 +$30 +5%
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) Jun 18 $34 +$1 +3%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $38 +$6 +17%
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Jun 17 $40 $0 +1%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $258 +$14 +5%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 17 $214 +$6 +3%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $89 +$13 +14%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $60 +$1 +1%
Spread: Portugal (-3.5) Jun 17 $72 +$4 +5%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $33 +$4 +11%
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Jun 17 $71 +$2 +3%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $83 +$7 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Spain (-4.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 88¢ $7 43m
Spread: Spain (-4.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 87¢ $46 43m
Spread: Spain (-4.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 87¢ $0 43m
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 81¢ $50 43m
Spread: Spain (-4.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 83¢ $37 43m
Spread: Spain (-4.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 83¢ $14 43m
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 81¢ $9 43m
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 81¢ $5 43m
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 81¢ $5 43m
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 81¢ $5 43m
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 81¢ $5 43m
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 81¢ $5 43m
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 81¢ $5 43m
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 81¢ $5 43m
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 81¢ $5 43m
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 81¢ $5 43m
Spread: Spain (-4.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 77¢ $18 44m
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 86¢ $7 44m
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 86¢ $7 44m
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 86¢ $7 44m
Spread: Spain (-4.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 77¢ $51 49m
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 76¢ $50 49m
Spread: Spain (-4.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 77¢ $6 49m
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 74¢ $6 49m
Spread: Spain (-4.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 73¢ $0 49m
Spread: Spain (-4.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 73¢ $7 49m
Spread: Spain (-4.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 76¢ $44 49m
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 73¢ $0 49m
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 73¢ $50 49m
Spread: Spain (-4.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 75¢ $51 50m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1383 history records