Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T17:43:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F7 0xf762…f58b other 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 288d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate27%10W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 30% +$1
world 26% −$2
politics 21% $0
crypto 12% $0
economics 6% $0
sports 3% $0
finance 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +1.2% -8.4% 25% 0% -8.4%
≤30d 14 -6.5% -15.4% 21% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 14 -6.5% -15.4% 21% 0% -9.1%
all 37 -2.7% -12.0% 27% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 0% -9.3%
10% -20.4% 0% -18.0%
15% -28.1% 0% -25.9%
20% -35.1% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

288d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses10 / 27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage288d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 81¢ 81¢ $32 $32 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 24 $31 $0 +0%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 24 $34 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 24 $19 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $29 +$1 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 03 $30 +$1 +3%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $61 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 31 $10 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 31 $29 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 29 $30 $0 -1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $30 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $29 +$1 +2%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 27 $29 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 26 $65 −$4 -7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 26 $32 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? Dec 06 $32 $0 +2%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Oct 14 $33 $0 -1%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 14 $33 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 13 $32 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 13 $33 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 13 $32 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 11 $33 $0 +0%
Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamen Oct 11 $33 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 15 $32 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? Sep 14 $7 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in September? Sep 14 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Sep 14 $4 $0 -12%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 13 $33 $0 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 13 $21 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 13 $13 $0 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 13 $33 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Sep 12 $33 $0 -0%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Sep 12 $33 $0 +0%
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the September meeting? Sep 10 $32 $0 +0%
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? Sep 10 $33 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 09 $33 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Sep 09 $32 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $32 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $31 4h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $31 8h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $34 10h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $34 11h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $19 17h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $19 18h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $30 26h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $29 29h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 63¢ $31 21d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 61¢ $30 21d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $20 22d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $10 22d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $27 22d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $30 22d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $33 22d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 23d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 23d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $10 24d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $10 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $19 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $10 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $29 24d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $24 26d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $6 26d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $30 26d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $19 26d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $11 26d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $30 26d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 92¢ $30 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.74 · official $31.79 (match) · 104 history records