Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:28:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
F7 0xf75f…343b other 8 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$326 (-12%) realized −$326 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate62%5W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$354per market
Trades / day12.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit12%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 95% −$397
sports 5% +$77
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.8% -10.3% 62% 50% -19.8%
≤30d 8 -0.8% -10.3% 62% 50% -19.8%
≤90d 8 -0.8% -10.3% 62% 50% -19.8%
all 8 -0.8% -10.3% 62% 50% -19.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 50% -19.8%
10% -18.8% 50% -27.4%
15% -26.7% 12% -34.4%
20% -33.9% 12% -40.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 59% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$66 vs −$216 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$326
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses5 / 3
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage2d
Avg bet$354
Trades / day12.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit12%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $131 +$36 +28%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $677 −$290 -43%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $152 +$77 +51%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $304 −$22 -7%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $201 +$53 +26%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $354 −$335 -95%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $564 +$47 +8%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $449 +$115 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 94¢ $167 14m
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 73¢ $131 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 22¢ $147 17h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 73¢ $504 18h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 71¢ $239 18h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 50¢ $173 19h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $228 19h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 66¢ $152 19h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 31¢ $85 20h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 71¢ $202 20h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 73¢ $197 20h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 37¢ $102 21h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 100¢ $0 22h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 100¢ $254 22h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 79¢ $201 22h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 3¢ $19 22h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 59¢ $354 24h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $611 41h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 92¢ $564 41h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $564 41h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 79¢ $449 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 21 history records