Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:52:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F7 0xf75f…b458 weather 27 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$174 (+21%) realized +$129 · open +$45
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate44%11W / 14L
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day41.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$335
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -9.3% -17.9% 44% 36% +22.3%
≤30d 25 -9.3% -17.9% 44% 36% +22.3%
≤90d 25 -9.3% -17.9% 44% 36% +22.3%
all 25 -9.3% -17.9% 44% 36% +22.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.9% 36% +22.3%
10% ← realistic here -25.8% 32% +10.6%
15% -32.9% 24% -0.1%
20% -39.5% 24% -9.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +35% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +35% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$3 · ×9.18 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.22 per $1 lost it wins $7.22
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized+$129
Unrealized+$45
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses11 / 14
Open positions2
Markets (closed)25 / 27
History coverage2d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day41.4
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 18? Yes 10¢ $2 $40 +$38 (+1606%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C or below on June 18? Yes $4 $11 +$7 (+150%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 18? Jun 18 $39 −$19 -49%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on June 17? Jun 18 $4 −$3 -71%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 17? Jun 18 $3 −$2 -75%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 17? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 17? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 17? Jun 18 $12 −$6 -46%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $13 +$14 +109%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $172 +$134 +78%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $66 +$6 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 17? Jun 17 $78 +$10 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $3 +$2 +73%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $6 +$2 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $34 +$47 +140%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $27 +$53 +194%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $124 +$33 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 16? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C or below on June 16? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -42%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 16? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 16? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $149 +$7 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 −$4 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $52 +$28 +55%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 −$1 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 18? SELL No 31¢ $20 24m
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C or below on June 18? BUY Yes $0 44m
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C or below on June 18? BUY Yes $1 48m
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C or below on June 18? BUY Yes $3 48m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 18? BUY No 58¢ $39 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 18? BUY Yes $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? SELL Yes 88¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? SELL Yes 95¢ $18 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? SELL No 99¢ $305 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 50¢ $43 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 57¢ $122 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 46¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 43¢ $13 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 18? SELL Yes 62¢ $48 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 18? BUY Yes 63¢ $8 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 18? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 18? BUY Yes 62¢ $11 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 18? SELL Yes 60¢ $24 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 18? BUY Yes 51¢ $9 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 18? BUY Yes 50¢ $15 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 18? BUY Yes 45¢ $13 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on June 17? SELL Yes $1 13h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on June 17? BUY Yes $4 13h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? BUY No $1 13h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 17? BUY Yes $2 13h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 17? BUY Yes $0 13h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 17? SELL Yes 88¢ $14 18h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 17? SELL Yes 88¢ $74 18h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 17? BUY Yes 77¢ $78 18h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 17? SELL Yes 30¢ $6 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.66 · official $51.85 (match) · 96 history records