Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:16:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F7 0xf75c…f734 world 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 418d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate41%11W / 16L
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 33% −$2
politics 29% −$1
other 21% +$2
crypto 15% $0
culture 2% +$1
economics 1% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -3.5% -12.7% 50% 0% -11.7%
≤30d 12 -0.7% -10.2% 25% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 12 -0.7% -10.2% 25% 0% -10.0%
all 27 -0.1% -9.6% 41% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 84% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

418d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses11 / 16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)27 / 28
History coverage418d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Yes $9 $9 +$1 (+7%)
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $24 −$2 -7%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $46 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 07 $19 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $19 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $24 $0 -1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $25 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $50 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $32 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $47 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $9 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $42 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $43 $0 -0%
Will Juventus win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 15 $2 $0 +3%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 24 $1 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $2 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? Jun 02 $2 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in his first 100 days? Apr 26 $140 $0 +0%
Will Matteo Zuppi be the next pope? Apr 25 $14 $0 +0%
Will the PPC win 5 or more seats in the next Canadian Election? Apr 25 $140 $0 +0%
Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? Apr 25 $108 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $85000 and $87000 on Apr 25? Apr 25 $41 $0 +1%
No Trump announcement of next Fed Chair by June 30? Apr 24 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? Apr 24 $24 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin in his first 100 days? Apr 24 $19 $0 +0%
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Apr 24 $12 −$1 -7%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 24 $23 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $79000 and $81000 on Apr 25? Apr 24 $117 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $9 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 26¢ $4 38h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 26¢ $18 42h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 28¢ $24 44h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $45 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $46 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $12 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $34 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $46 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 29¢ $19 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $19 7d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $19 8d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $19 8d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $3 8d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $10 8d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $7 8d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 8d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 29¢ $2 8d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 28¢ $10 8d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 28¢ $13 8d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 28¢ $16 8d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 28¢ $9 8d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $4 9d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 9d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $16 9d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $26 9d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $42 9d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 45¢ $9 9d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 45¢ $23 9d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $32 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.30 · official $10.30 (match) · 96 history records