Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T21:04:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F7 0xf758…b0f2 crypto 88 markets active 2h ago coverage 213d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$121 (-31%) realized −$120 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -64% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -68% what you keep after slip
Net edge-68%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate14%12W / 75L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$38
7 days+$31
14 days+$25
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 73% −$77
other 23% $0
world 3% −$6
sports 1% −$1
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-67.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -21.5% -29.0% 33% 33% +112.2%
≤30d 16 -59.8% -63.6% 12% 12% -2.4%
≤90d 16 -59.8% -63.6% 12% 12% -2.4%
all 87 -64.3% -67.7% 14% 14% -30.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -67.7% 14% -30.3%
10% -70.8% 11% -36.9%
15% -73.6% 11% -43.0%
20% -76.2% 11% -48.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 70% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -64% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -54% → late -74% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$3 · ×3.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

213d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$120
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses12 / 75
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)87 / 88
History coverage213d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 87 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Hassan Rouhani be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 70 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $15 +$38 +249%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $1 $0 +22%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 −$1 -25%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$9 -85%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $38 −$6 -17%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-12? Feb 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February? Feb 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 7? Feb 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on February 7 Feb 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February? Feb 07 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 4? Feb 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on February 4? Feb 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 3? Feb 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in February? Feb 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in February? Feb 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 30? Jan 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 30? Jan 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Khamenei leave Iran by March 31? Jan 30 $2 +$2 +86%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 1, 2026 (ET)? Jan 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026? Jan 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the US strike Iran next? Jan 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FC København win on 2026-01-28? Jan 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 29? Jan 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90,000 and $92,000 on January 8? Jan 08 $5 +$4 +77%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 8? Jan 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 8? Jan 08 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 7? Jan 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 7? Jan 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 7? Jan 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $94,000 and $96,000 on January 6? Jan 06 $4 $0 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on January 6? Jan 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 6? Jan 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 6? Jan 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 5? Jan 05 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 2AM ET Jan 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Jan 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 3? Jan 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 December 29-January 4? Jan 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 4? Jan 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 100¢ $54 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 28¢ $15 3h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 3d
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $1 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 4d
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 4d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 7d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 11d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 12d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 12d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 13d
Will Hassan Rouhani be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 13d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 13d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 13d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 13d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 14d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 15d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 15d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 15d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 15d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 18¢ $0 15d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 20¢ $4 15d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 15d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 20¢ $9 15d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 15d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 20¢ $5 15d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.25 · official $0.25 (match) · 154 history records