Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:29:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F7 0xf754…67cf other 39 markets active 11h ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$13 (-22%) realized −$12 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate34%13W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 22% −$3
world 18% −$2
sports 18% $0
politics 12% −$3
crypto 10% −$5
finance 8% +$2
tech 8% $0
economics 3% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-24.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -54.6% -58.9% 17% 17% -58.2%
≤30d 7 -61.1% -64.8% 14% 14% -64.2%
≤90d 23 -17.1% -25.0% 26% 26% -31.1%
all 38 -16.5% -24.4% 34% 29% -27.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.4% 29% -27.8%
10% -31.7% 24% -34.7%
15% -38.3% 21% -41.0%
20% -44.3% 18% -46.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -45% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$12
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses13 / 25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage108d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? No $1 $0 −$1 (-91%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +172%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 20? May 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in April? Apr 30 $1 −$1 -93%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? Apr 30 $1 −$1 -93%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 23? Apr 24 $3 +$2 +54%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 23 $1 +$3 +335%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Apr 07 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Chengdu Rongcheng FC win on 2026-04-03? Apr 07 $1 $0 +28%
LoL: French Flair vs Galions (BO3) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Mar 26 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Unicorns Of Love Sexy Edition (BO3) - EM Mar 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Mar 23 $6 −$2 -41%
LoL: LYON vs JD Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Group B Mar 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Dalian Yingbo FC win on 2026-03-20? Mar 23 $1 +$2 +203%
LoL: G2 Esports vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - First Stand Group A Mar 23 $1 +$5 +456%
Hezbollah military action against Israel by March 20? Mar 20 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs LYON (BO5) - First Stand Group B Mar 20 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs G2 Esports (BO5) - First Stand Group A Mar 19 $4 $0 -8%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 19 $1 −$1 -100%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31? Mar 18 $1 $0 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Mar 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will there be between 10 and 13 US strikes on Somalia in February 2026 Mar 18 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs JD Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Group B Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - First Stand Group A Mar 17 $1 $0 +49%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Mar 16 $5 $0 +9%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $5,000 by end of March? Mar 16 $1 +$1 +60%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 12 $1 $0 +20%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6? Mar 12 $1 +$1 +56%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Mar 03 $1 $0 -0%
Will another country strike Iran by March 31? Mar 02 $2 $0 +12%
Crude Oil (CL) Up or Down on March 2? Mar 02 $2 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 1? Mar 01 $1 $0 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 10h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 11h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 6d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 20? BUY No $1 28d
Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 33d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No $1 39d
Will Trump visit China by May 15? BUY No 10¢ $1 39d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in April? BUY Yes $1 48d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? BUY Yes $1 48d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 23? BUY Up 64¢ $3 55d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 81d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 84d
LoL: French Flair vs Galions (BO3) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY French Flair 57¢ $1 84d
Will Trump visit China by April 30? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 86d
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Unicorns Of Love Sexy Edition (BO3) - EM BUY Team Heretics Academy 61¢ $1 86d
Will Chengdu Rongcheng FC win on 2026-04-03? BUY Yes 78¢ $1 86d
LoL: LYON vs JD Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Group B BUY LYON $1 89d
LoL: G2 Esports vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - First Stand Group A BUY G2 Esports 18¢ $1 89d
LoL: Gen.G vs LYON (BO5) - First Stand Group B BUY LYON $1 90d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs G2 Esports (BO5) - First Stand Group A BUY Bilibili Gaming 81¢ $3 91d
Will Trump visit China by April 30? BUY Yes 39¢ $5 91d
Hezbollah military action against Israel by March 20? BUY No 38¢ $1 91d
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31? SELL Yes 21¢ $1 91d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs G2 Esports (BO5) - First Stand Group A BUY G2 Esports 19¢ $1 91d
LoL: Gen.G vs JD Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Group B BUY JD Gaming 11¢ $1 92d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - First Stand Group A BUY Bilibili Gaming 67¢ $1 93d
Will Dalian Yingbo FC win on 2026-03-20? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 93d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.09 · official $0.09 (match) · 77 history records