Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T11:12:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5

score

F7 0xf753…1231 sports 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 17d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real

Total PnL −$13 (-11%) realized −$9 · open −$4

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip

Net edge+8%after slip

Net WR67%break-even

Win rate67%4W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$17per market

Trades / day0.7pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit57%portable

Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 17d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +67%

net ROI/market (all)+8.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	6	+19.9%	+8.5%	67%	67%	-22.0%
≤90d	6	+19.9%	+8.5%	67%	67%	-22.0%
all	6	+19.9%	+8.5%	67%	67%	-22.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.7 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+8.5%	67%	-22.0%
10%	-1.9%	67%	-29.4%
15%	-11.4%	67%	-36.3%
20%	-20.0%	50%	-42.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 45% · top 2 71% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -14% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +20% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$6 vs −$17 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.72 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage

Net worth$45

Realized−$9

Unrealized−$4

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses4 / 2

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)6 / 7

History coverage17d

Avg bet$17

Trades / day0.7

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 6 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	6¢	6¢	$49	$45	−$4 (-8%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$7	−$7	-99%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026?	Jun 13	$27	−$26	-97%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States 1st Half O/U 0.5	Jun 13	$5	+$6	+118%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5	Jun 13	$4	+$2	+48%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5)	Jun 11	$5	+$5	+100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner	Jun 11	$20	+$11	+53%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	6¢	$40	1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	59¢	$7	14d
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026?	BUY Yes	6¢	$10	14d
United States vs. Paraguay: United States 1st Half O/U 0.5	SELL Over	100¢	$11	15d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5	SELL Over	100¢	$6	15d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	67¢	$4	15d
United States vs. Paraguay: United States 1st Half O/U 0.5	BUY Over	45¢	$5	15d
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026?	BUY Yes	6¢	$16	15d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	8¢	$10	15d
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5)	BUY FURIA	49¢	$5	16d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner	BUY FURIA	64¢	$10	16d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner	BUY FURIA	65¢	$10	16d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.92 · official $44.92 (match) · 14 history records