Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:45:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F7 0xf752…101c crypto 480 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 10d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (305 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$8,479 (-16%) realized −$8,479 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate34%248W / 492L
Whale WR25%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$114per market
Trades / day305.1pace
Fees−$168est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 11d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 77% −$1,945
sports 23% −$5,656
other 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (305 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-41.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 420 -62.0% -65.6% 25% 19% -58.2%
≤30d 740 -34.9% -41.1% 34% 29% -39.8%
≤90d 740 -34.9% -41.1% 34% 29% -39.8%
all 740 -34.9% -41.1% 34% 29% -39.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover305.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -41.1% 29% -39.8%
10% ← realistic here -46.8% 24% -45.6%
15% -51.9% 19% -50.9%
20% -56.6% 17% -55.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -38% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 25% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late -70% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$77 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$8,479
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses248 / 492
Whale WR (big bets)25%
Est. fees paid−$168
Open positions1
Markets (closed)740 / 480
History coverage11d ⚠
Avg bet$114
Trades / day305.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 740 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Down 64¢ 68¢ $6 $7 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 332 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $150 −$213 -142%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $330 −$330 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$63 -1197%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 17 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$59 -1067%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 17 $100 −$115 -115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 17 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 17 $95 −$112 -118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $40 −$44 -112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 17 $100 −$152 -152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 17 $400 −$400 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $30 −$181 -597%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 17 $130 −$130 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $169 −$280 -166%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $6 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $10 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $10 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $20 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $2 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $7 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET SELL Up 28¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $17 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET SELL Up 19¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $20 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.75 · official $7.65 (match) · 3500 history records