Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:19:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F7 0xf750…aa10 sports 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 56d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$9 (+3%) realized −$20 · open +$29
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate53%8W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$25
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days−$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% +$17
other 36% −$9
world 4% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-19.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -4.6% -13.7% 57% 50% -9.0%
≤30d 15 -10.9% -19.4% 53% 47% -18.5%
≤90d 15 -10.9% -19.4% 53% 47% -18.5%
all 15 -10.9% -19.4% 53% 47% -18.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.4% 47% -18.5%
10% -27.1% 47% -26.3%
15% -34.2% 47% -33.4%
20% -40.6% 33% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 43% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$16 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$29
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses8 / 7
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)15 / 17
History coverage56d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 100¢ $10 $42 +$32 (+316%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 53¢ 40¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $10 +$10 +101%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$17 +86%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $10 +$4 +42%
Sweden to score first vs. Tunisia? Jun 15 $10 +$7 +65%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $20 +$17 +83%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $20 +$22 +109%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer? Jun 13 $30 +$13 +45%
Will Burnley finish in last place in the 2025-26 English Premier Leagu May 31 $25 −$25 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 20h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $10 20h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $20 20h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $20 20h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 49¢ $20 20h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $38 21h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $10 24h
Sweden to score first vs. Tunisia? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 24h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 53¢ $20 24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 33h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 54¢ $20 33h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 46h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $10 46h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $20 2d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer? BUY Yes 69¢ $30 56d
Will Burnley finish in last place in the 2025-26 English Premier Leagu BUY Yes 50¢ $25 56d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.29 · official $49.29 (match) · 26 history records