trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | -4.8% | -13.8% | 0% | 0% | -13.8% |
| ≤30d | 4 | +2.6% | -7.2% | 25% | 25% | +3.0% |
| ≤90d | 4 | +2.6% | -7.2% | 25% | 25% | +3.0% |
| all | 19 | +21.2% | +9.7% | 63% | 26% | -14.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +9.7% | 26% | -14.5% |
| 10% | -0.8% | 21% | -22.7% |
| 15% | -10.4% | 11% | -30.2% |
| 20% | -19.2% | 5% | -37.0% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | Yes | 15¢ | 14¢ | $1,290 | $1,241 | −$49 (-4%) |
| Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 2¢ | $275 | $270 | −$6 (-2%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 21 | $333 | −$16 | -5% |
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Jun 09 | $1,485 | +$672 | +45% |
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | May 30 | $520 | −$151 | -29% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? | May 27 | $1,195 | −$14 | -1% |
| Fabric FDV above $100M one day after launch? | Mar 05 | $300 | +$37 | +12% |
| Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? | Feb 11 | $114 | +$686 | +604% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90,000 and $92,000 on December 3 | Dec 31 | $182 | +$2 | +1% |
| Lighter Airdrop on December 29? | Dec 31 | $190 | +$10 | +5% |
| Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? | Dec 31 | $154 | +$46 | +30% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2025? | Dec 23 | $113 | −$113 | -100% |
| Over $30M committed to the Gensyn public sale? | Dec 21 | $174 | +$49 | +28% |
| Harmonix FDV above $15M one day after launch? | Dec 18 | $208 | −$208 | -100% |
| Will Solana hit $210 in March? | Oct 20 | $203 | +$7 | +4% |
| Will another country launch a memecoin in February? | Mar 03 | $1,648 | −$1,648 | -100% |
| Was Milei hacked? | Feb 15 | $1,586 | +$61 | +4% |
| Will Ethereum hit $3,750 by January 31, 2025? | Feb 02 | $1,496 | +$21 | +1% |
| Will Solana hit $300 by January 31, 2025? | Feb 02 | $69 | +$1 | +2% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by January 31, 2025? | Jan 29 | $69 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Ethereum hit $4,000 by January 31, 2025? | Jan 29 | $67 | +$1 | +2% |