Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T11:44:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F7 0xf748…c387 sports 275 markets active 2h ago coverage 153d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,226 (-13%) realized −$2,221 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate40%106W / 162L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$114est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$599now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1,408
14 days+$406
30 days+$406
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 36% −$725
world 24% −$344
other 24% −$1,229
politics 8% −$80
crypto 7% −$58
weather 0% −$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +11.0% +0.4% 17% 17% -81.0%
≤30d 8 +110.1% +90.1% 25% 25% +2.7%
≤90d 268 -1.4% -10.8% 40% 35% -23.3%
all 268 -1.4% -10.8% 40% 35% -23.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 35% -23.3%
10% -19.3% 29% -30.7%
15% -27.1% 25% -37.4%
20% -34.3% 22% -43.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 57% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$48 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

153d coverage
Net worth$599
Realized−$2,221
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses106 / 162
Est. fees paid−$114
Open positions6
Markets (closed)268 / 275
History coverage153d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 268 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $166 $165 −$1 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $118 $117 −$1 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $108 $107 −$1 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $106 $105 −$1 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $102 $101 −$1 (-1%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? Yes $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,175 −$1,175 -100%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 16? Jun 18 $79 −$79 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $425 −$425 -100%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $42 −$42 -100%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $56 +$318 +566%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $930 −$930 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 15 $300 +$2,744 +915%
Hamburg European Open: Luciano Darderi vs Alex de Minaur May 21 $52 −$31 -60%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? May 21 $51 −$2 -4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 21 $51 −$2 -4%
Hamburg European Open: Ignacio Buse vs Jakub Mensik May 21 $52 −$52 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 21 $52 −$5 -9%
Hamburg European Open: Luciano Darderi vs Yannick Hanfmann May 20 $51 +$24 +48%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 20? May 20 $51 +$10 +19%
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to Score May 20 $52 −$2 -5%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 20 $51 −$7 -14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 20? May 20 $51 +$2 +3%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $99 −$5 -5%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? May 19 $103 −$5 -4%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres May 19 $82 −$82 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5 May 19 $101 −$101 -100%
Canadiens vs. Sabres May 19 $103 −$103 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 19 $100 −$11 -11%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? May 19 $205 −$12 -6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 19? May 19 $81 +$10 +13%
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 19 $101 −$6 -6%
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House May 19 $102 −$6 -6%
Will GameStop acquire eBay? May 19 $203 −$5 -3%
Bengaluru 3: Ryuki Matsuda vs Yusuke Takahashi May 19 $81 −$8 -10%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels May 19 $80 +$17 +22%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees May 19 $69 −$44 -63%
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals May 19 $85 −$41 -48%
Bengaluru 3: Karan Singh vs Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong May 19 $81 −$12 -15%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 18 $99 −$73 -74%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox May 18 $104 −$7 -7%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5) May 18 $101 +$94 +93%
Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5 May 18 $97 −$5 -5%
Geneva Open: Raul Brancaccio vs Stan Wawrinka May 18 $98 +$33 +34%
Geneva Open: Lorenzo Sonego vs Edas Butvilas May 18 $81 −$70 -86%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect May 18 $151 −$5 -3%
Istanbul: Andres Martin vs David Jorda Sanchis May 18 $68 −$68 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 18? May 18 $154 +$18 +12%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Marie Bouzkova vs Katerina Siniakova May 18 $92 −$76 -82%
Geneva Open: Arthur Rinderknech vs Thiago Agustin Tirante May 18 $81 +$124 +152%
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem: Jil Teichmann vs Julia Grabher May 18 $77 +$42 +54%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Daria Kasatkina vs Liudmila Samsonova May 18 $67 +$97 +146%
Hamburg European Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli May 18 $62 −$46 -73%
Hamburg European Open: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Corentin Moutet May 18 $59 −$45 -76%
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el May 18 $204 −$13 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes $4 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $107 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 83¢ $167 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 59¢ $119 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $103 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $111 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? AND Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Ar BUY $5 36h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 15¢ $75 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 25¢ $125 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 55¢ $275 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $700 2d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes $5 6d
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? SELL No 100¢ $375 6d
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? BUY No 15¢ $30 6d
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? BUY No 15¢ $26 6d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 16? BUY Yes $7 7d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 16? BUY Yes $69 7d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 16? BUY Yes $4 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $175 8d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No $0 8d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No $35 8d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No $0 8d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No $0 8d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No $7 8d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No $0 8d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes $25 8d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes $20 8d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes $0 8d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes $0 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $150 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $598.65 · official $603.65 (match) · 692 history records