trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | -5.1% | -14.1% | 0% | 0% | -14.1% |
| ≤30d | 1 | -5.1% | -14.1% | 0% | 0% | -14.1% |
| ≤90d | 2 | -52.5% | -57.1% | 0% | 0% | -99.5% |
| all | 21 | -82.7% | -84.4% | 5% | 5% | -88.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -84.4% | 5% | -88.5% |
| 10% | -85.9% | 5% | -89.6% |
| 15% | -87.2% | 5% | -90.6% |
| 20% | -88.5% | 0% | -91.6% |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 12 | $3 | $0 | -5% |
| MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? | Apr 25 | $502 | −$502 | -100% |
| Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Apr 15 | $15 | −$15 | -100% |
| Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Apr 15 | $25 | −$25 | -100% |
| Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after May 2025 meeting? | Mar 20 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by March 31? | Mar 04 | $78 | −$78 | -100% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by March 31? | Mar 04 | $139 | −$103 | -74% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by March 31? | Mar 04 | $338 | −$155 | -46% |
| Will Ethereum hit $3,000.00 again by March 31? | Mar 04 | $125 | −$125 | -100% |
| Will Solana hit $250 in March? | Mar 04 | $300 | −$300 | -100% |
| Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Feb 10 | $564 | −$327 | -58% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by February 28, 2025? | Feb 08 | $427 | −$427 | -100% |
| Was Trump hacked? | Jan 19 | $1,287 | −$988 | -77% |
| Fed rate cut by September 18? | Aug 24 | $1,257 | −$1,257 | -100% |
| China wins the most gold medals in 2024 Paris Olympics? | Aug 11 | $1,098 | −$687 | -62% |
| Will France win the 3rd most medals? | Aug 11 | $0 | $0 | -100% |
| Will Great Britain win the 3rd most medals? | Aug 11 | $500 | −$500 | -100% |
| USA wins the most gold medals in 2024 Paris Olympics? | Aug 11 | $400 | +$176 | +44% |
| China wins the most medals in 2024 Paris Olympics? | Jul 29 | $50 | −$50 | -100% |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Jul 14 | $0 | $0 | -3% |
| Will Elon tweet 75-84 times? | May 24 | $0 | $0 | -100% |