Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:04:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F7 0xf747…f842 other 21 markets active 6d ago coverage 749d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$5,372 (-75%) realized −$5,372 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -83% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -84% what you keep after slip
Net edge-84%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate5%1W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$339per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 36% −$1,563
crypto 20% −$1,189
politics 18% −$988
economics 18% −$1,267
sports 8% −$366
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-84.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -5.1% -14.1% 0% 0% -14.1%
≤30d 1 -5.1% -14.1% 0% 0% -14.1%
≤90d 2 -52.5% -57.1% 0% 0% -99.5%
all 21 -82.7% -84.4% 5% 5% -88.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -84.4% 5% -88.5%
10% -85.9% 5% -89.6%
15% -87.2% 5% -90.6%
20% -88.5% 0% -91.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -99% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -83% · $-wt -110% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -76% → late -89% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$176 vs −$277 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

749d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5,372
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses1 / 20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)21 / 21
History coverage749d
Avg bet$339
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 21 Trades
no open positions (17 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3 $0 -5%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Apr 25 $502 −$502 -100%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after May 2025 meeting? Mar 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by March 31? Mar 04 $78 −$78 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by March 31? Mar 04 $139 −$103 -74%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by March 31? Mar 04 $338 −$155 -46%
Will Ethereum hit $3,000.00 again by March 31? Mar 04 $125 −$125 -100%
Will Solana hit $250 in March? Mar 04 $300 −$300 -100%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Feb 10 $564 −$327 -58%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by February 28, 2025? Feb 08 $427 −$427 -100%
Was Trump hacked? Jan 19 $1,287 −$988 -77%
Fed rate cut by September 18? Aug 24 $1,257 −$1,257 -100%
China wins the most gold medals in 2024 Paris Olympics? Aug 11 $1,098 −$687 -62%
Will France win the 3rd most medals? Aug 11 $0 $0 -100%
Will Great Britain win the 3rd most medals? Aug 11 $500 −$500 -100%
USA wins the most gold medals in 2024 Paris Olympics? Aug 11 $400 +$176 +44%
China wins the most medals in 2024 Paris Olympics? Jul 29 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Jul 14 $0 $0 -3%
Will Elon tweet 75-84 times? May 24 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 48¢ $3 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 49¢ $3 5d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? BUY No 12¢ $1 53d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? BUY No 12¢ $1 53d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? BUY No 12¢ $480 54d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? BUY No 11¢ $10 54d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? BUY No 11¢ $10 54d
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? BUY Yes $8 428d
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? BUY Yes $25 428d
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? BUY Yes $7 428d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after May 2025 meeting? BUY Yes $10 454d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by March 31? BUY Yes $44 470d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by March 31? SELL Yes 10¢ $36 470d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by March 31? BUY Yes $34 470d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by March 31? SELL Yes 10¢ $10 470d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by March 31? BUY Yes 10¢ $57 470d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by March 31? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 470d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by March 31? BUY Yes 10¢ $14 470d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by March 31? BUY Yes 10¢ $17 470d
Will Ethereum hit $3,000.00 again by March 31? BUY Yes 10¢ $125 470d
Will Solana hit $250 in March? BUY Yes $231 470d
Will Solana hit $250 in March? BUY Yes $69 470d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by March 31? SELL Yes 12¢ $130 470d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by March 31? SELL Yes 12¢ $38 470d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by March 31? BUY Yes $139 473d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by March 31? BUY Yes 10¢ $250 473d
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL Yes $4 492d
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL Yes $0 492d
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL Yes $0 492d
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL Yes $0 492d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 160 history records