Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T21:09:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F7
0xf745…bf49
weather · 40 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$117 -11%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$93 · open −$24
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$73
Realized−$93
Unrealized−$24
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses6 / 19
Open positions15
Markets (closed)25 / 40
History coverage10d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day14.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 15 History 25 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$24
7 days−$85
14 days−$93
30 days−$93
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on June 13? Yes 35¢ 36¢ $19 $19 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 13? Yes 49¢ 58¢ $11 $14 +$2 (+20%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 12? Yes 44¢ 22¢ $17 $8 −$8 (-50%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on June 13? Yes 14¢ 16¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+15%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 13? Yes 57¢ 53¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 12? Yes 48¢ 67¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+40%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 13? Yes 20¢ 18¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 13? Yes 44¢ 41¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 13? Yes 25¢ 26¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on June 13? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on June 13? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-20%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 13? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-24%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 12? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-68%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on June 12? Yes $18 $0 −$17 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 12? Yes 11¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-93%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on June 7? Yes 56¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on June 8? Yes 67¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on June 10? Yes $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on June 10? Yes 29¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on June 3? Yes 26¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 12 $21 +$17 +81%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 11 $35 −$6 -19%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 11 $55 −$8 -15%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju Jun 11 $28 −$8 -29%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 11 $19 −$18 -95%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 10 $71 +$6 +8%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 09 $50 −$2 -4%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 09 $27 −$5 -20%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 09 $27 −$10 -35%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 09 $10 −$2 -24%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 09 $19 −$12 -62%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 09 $8 −$3 -38%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 08 $13 −$13 -98%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 08 $17 −$2 -10%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 08 $45 −$23 -51%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 08 $28 −$5 -17%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 07 $115 −$30 -26%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 07 $228 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 07 $97 −$9 -10%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 07 $29 +$48 +166%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 06 $6 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 06 $3 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 05 $2 $0 -10%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 05 $3 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 03 $8 −$8 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% −$117
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 12? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 12? BUY Yes 48¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 12? BUY Yes 44¢ $17 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 12? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on June 13? BUY Yes $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 13? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 13? BUY Yes 49¢ $12 3h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju BUY Yes 35¢ $20 4h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju BUY Yes 14¢ $7 4h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY Yes $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 13? BUY Yes 57¢ $8 5h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 13? BUY Yes $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju BUY Yes $18 21h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju BUY Yes 54¢ $21 29h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju SELL Yes 25¢ $28 32h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju SELL Yes 40¢ $13 32h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju BUY Yes 41¢ $14 37h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju SELL Yes 18¢ $10 37h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju BUY Yes 23¢ $14 37h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju SELL Yes 34¢ $13 37h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju SELL Yes 17¢ $10 37h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju BUY Yes 38¢ $16 37h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju BUY Yes 23¢ $14 37h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju SELL Yes 35¢ $21 37h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY Yes $19 41h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju BUY Yes 40¢ $25 43h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju BUY Yes 28¢ $35 45h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju SELL Yes $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-26.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -15.7% -23.7% 27% 14% -20.0%
≤30d 25 -18.5% -26.2% 24% 12% -20.9%
≤90d 25 -18.5% -26.2% 24% 12% -20.9%
all 25 -18.5% -26.2% 24% 12% -20.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover14.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.2% 12% -20.9%
10% -33.3% 8% -28.5%
15% -39.7% 8% -35.4%
20% -45.6% 8% -41.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $73.25 · official $73.14 (match) · 147 history records