Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:11:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F7
0xf743…ac84
politics · 170 markets active 104d ago
0.0score
+$745,263 +6%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$741,045 · open +$4,218
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$13,013
Realized+$741,045
Unrealized+$4,218
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses115 / 52
Whale WR (big bets)90%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)167 / 170
History coverage365d
Avg bet$79,244
Trades / day8.2
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit83%
Chart Positions 3 History 167 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 29¢ 44¢ $8,384 $12,576 +$4,192 (+50%)
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 93¢ 99¢ $409 $434 +$25 (+6%)
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 29¢ 44¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+53%)
Will Pope Leo XIV be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $1,666 $0 −$1,666 (-100%)
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $600 $0 −$600 (-100%)
Will Trump announce Chris Waller as next Fed Chair in 2025? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $104 $0 −$104 (-100%)
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $6,319 $0 −$6,319 (-100%)
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Yes 33¢ 0¢ $545 $0 −$545 (-100%)
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 30? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $47 $0 −$47 (-100%)
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $511 $0 −$511 (-100%)
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $1,033 $0 −$1,033 (-100%)
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair in 2025? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $1,478 $0 −$1,478 (-100%)
Will Stephen Miran be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet in 2025? Yes 73¢ 0¢ $671 $0 −$671 (-100%)
Will Eric Adams drop out first? No 31¢ 0¢ $1,821 $0 −$1,821 (-100%)
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with China in July? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $53 $0 −$53 (-100%)
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Canada in July? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $205 $0 −$205 (-100%)
Will Hades II win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awards? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $85 $0 −$85 (-100%)
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $2,920 $0 −$2,920 (-100%)
Trump x Xi Jinping talk before August? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 31? No 68¢ 0¢ $1,664 $0 −$1,664 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 22 $9,720 +$280 +3%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Mar 22 $19,634 +$316 +2%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? Feb 21 $12,489 +$1,203 +10%
Will Trump announce Scott Bessent as next Fed Chair in 2025? Jan 01 $218 +$11 +5%
Will Scott Bessent be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet in 2025? Jan 01 $884 +$32 +4%
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? Jan 01 $1,081 +$380 +35%
Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025? Jan 01 $14,488 −$313 -2%
Will Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Jan 01 $4,681 +$642 +14%
Will the Iranian regime fall in 2025? Jan 01 $4,663 +$697 +15%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jan 01 $7,134 +$13,248 +186%
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI in 2025? Jan 01 $19,208 +$1,985 +10%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by December 31? Jan 01 $25,202 +$10,801 +43%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Jan 01 $45,434 +$10,528 +23%
Will Donald Trump be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Jan 01 $55,011 +$3,695 +7%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Jan 01 $76,983 +$4,914 +6%
Trump out as President in 2025? Jan 01 $79,006 +$6,209 +8%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Jan 01 $80,540 +$9,389 +12%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? Jan 01 $226,139 +$31,360 +14%
Will Hades II win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awards? Nov 17 $85 −$85 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 05 $105,924 +$16,058 +15%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Nov 04 $88,117 +$5,710 +6%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 31 $111,412 +$2,314 +2%
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 29 $20,666 +$1,556 +8%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025? Oct 15 $511 −$511 -100%
Will Stephen Miran be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet in 2025? Oct 10 $3,663 −$1,331 -36%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 17? Oct 09 $4,044 −$1,030 -26%
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 31? Oct 05 $1,664 −$1,664 -100%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 01 $97,306 −$243 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 01 $222,739 −$4,220 -2%
US government shutdown in 2025? Oct 01 $6,449 +$9,466 +147%
Xi Jinping out before October? Oct 01 $48,364 +$2,325 +5%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30? Oct 01 $254,401 +$37,167 +15%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 30? Sep 30 $1,105 −$930 -84%
Will Eric Adams drop out by October 15? Sep 29 $3,481 +$1,242 +36%
Will Eric Adams drop out? Sep 29 $10,343 +$2,559 +25%
Will Eric Adams drop out first? Sep 29 $2,428 −$1,821 -75%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 28 $18,671 −$778 -4%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 26 $6,319 −$6,319 -100%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 18 $1,999 +$632 +32%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 18 $114,049 +$26,254 +23%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 18 $294,956 +$129,415 +44%
Trump renames Department of Defense by September 30? Sep 07 $3,598 +$805 +22%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? Sep 05 $1,033 −$1,033 -100%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair in 2025? Sep 05 $1,478 −$1,478 -100%
Will Trump resign today? Sep 03 $12,246 +$99 +1%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by August 31? Sep 01 $31,616 +$693 +2%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by August 31? Sep 01 $50,725 +$2,843 +6%
Houthi strike on Israel by August 31? Aug 28 $466,797 +$801 +0%
Will Trump try to fire Powell by August 31? Aug 26 $17,294 +$410 +2%
Will Trump pardon Eric Adams in 2025? Aug 24 $155 −$46 -30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 30% +$129,393
world 27% −$93,698
economics 23% +$385,684
politics 15% +$300,964
culture 2% −$2,726
crypto 2% +$6,957
tech 0% +$16,350
sports 0% +$2,338
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY Yes 97¢ $2,726 103d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY Yes 97¢ $1,458 103d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY Yes 97¢ $486 103d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY Yes 97¢ $5,050 103d
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? SELL No 90¢ $13,692 110d
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? BUY No 98¢ $2,856 131d
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? BUY No 98¢ $16,778 131d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 98¢ $98 183d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 98¢ $488 183d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 98¢ $244 183d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 97¢ $25,173 183d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 98¢ $49 183d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 98¢ $488 183d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 98¢ $439 183d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 98¢ $2,063 183d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 98¢ $49 183d
Will Donald Trump be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? BUY No 94¢ $51,128 189d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 92¢ $47,894 190d
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? BUY No 96¢ $9,034 204d
Will Hades II win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awards? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 206d
Will Hades II win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awards? BUY Yes 2¢ $22 206d
Will Hades II win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awards? BUY Yes 3¢ $60 206d
Will Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game BUY Yes 88¢ $2 206d
Will Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game BUY Yes 88¢ $26 206d
Will Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game BUY Yes 88¢ $4,653 206d
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? BUY No 96¢ $140 218d
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? BUY No 96¢ $27 218d
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? BUY No 96¢ $27 218d
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? BUY No 96¢ $27 218d
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? BUY No 96¢ $27 218d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 2 +2.2% -7.5% 100% 0% -7.7%
all 167 -6.3% -15.3% 69% 30% -4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover8.2 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.3% 30% -4.5%
10% ← realistic here -23.4% 21% -13.7%
15% -30.8% 14% -22.0%
20% -37.6% 9% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13,012.57 · official $13,012.57 (match) · 3500 history records