Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T21:30:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F7 0xf743…9e89 crypto 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 170d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$32 (-4%) realized −$29 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate74%28W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$29
7 days+$44
14 days−$55
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$54
sports 41% +$39
crypto 10% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +12.0% +1.4% 100% 50% +0.0%
≤30d 19 -7.7% -16.5% 79% 32% -11.9%
≤90d 38 -7.6% -16.4% 74% 29% -12.5%
all 38 -7.6% -16.4% 74% 29% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.4% 29% -12.5%
10% -24.4% 16% -20.9%
15% -31.7% 5% -28.5%
20% -38.4% 0% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$12 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

170d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$29
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses28 / 10
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage170d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $32 $29 −$3 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Norway vs. France: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $59 +$8 +13%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $56 +$2 +4%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $54 +$2 +3%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $51 +$4 +7%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $43 +$7 +17%
Czechia vs. Mexico: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $43 $0 +1%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $37 +$6 +16%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $26 +$11 +44%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $23 +$3 +11%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $22 +$1 +4%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $99 −$98 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $135 +$47 +35%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 02 $4 −$1 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 02 $7 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 02 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET May 30 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET May 30 $3 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET May 30 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET May 08 $6 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET May 08 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET May 08 $3 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET May 08 $3 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET May 08 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET May 08 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET May 08 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET May 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Apr 14 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Apr 14 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Apr 14 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Apr 14 $1 $0 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Apr 14 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Apr 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Apr 12 $4 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Apr 12 $3 +$1 +25%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by Wednesday? Apr 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Apr 09 $4 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Apr 09 $3 +$1 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway vs. France: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Under 88¢ $59 1h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 96¢ $56 18h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 97¢ $54 22h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 93¢ $51 24h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 85¢ $43 43h
Czechia vs. Mexico: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners SELL Under 100¢ $43 43h
Czechia vs. Mexico: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Under 99¢ $43 43h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $43 45h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 86¢ $37 45h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 69¢ $26 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 90¢ $16 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 90¢ $7 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 96¢ $22 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $99 13d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $33 13d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 94¢ $182 15d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $135 15d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 22d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 22d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 22d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 23d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $3 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $4 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $3 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $3 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $3 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $3 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $3 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $3 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.55 · official $28.55 (match) · 108 history records