Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:18:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F7 0xf742…7ab6 crypto 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 211d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$39,057 (-65%) realized −$39,140 · open +$83
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +41% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +22% what you keep after slip
Net edge+22%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%11W / 25L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,504per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$1,242now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$315
7 days+$315
14 days+$374
30 days+$985
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 74% −$40,197
crypto 22% +$583
economics 3% +$960
finance 0% −$269
world 0% −$132
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+27.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +349.6% +306.7% 100% 100% +306.7%
≤30d 5 +158.4% +133.8% 100% 100% +77.6%
≤90d 7 +84.6% +67.0% 71% 71% +27.6%
all 36 +40.8% +27.4% 31% 31% -69.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +27.4% 31% -69.6%
10% +15.2% 28% -72.5%
15% +4.1% 25% -75.1%
20% -6.1% 25% -77.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +41% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +41% · $-wt -66% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$909) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -58% → late +140% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
10.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,010 vs −$2,010 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

211d coverage
Net worth$1,242
Realized−$39,140
Unrealized+$83
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses11 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Open positions4
Markets (closed)36 / 40
History coverage211d
Avg bet$1,504
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? No 77¢ 82¢ $1,090 $1,165 +$75 (+7%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $44 $37 −$7 (-16%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $22 +$12 (+125%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $15 $18 +$2 (+17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $90 +$315 +350%
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Pri Jun 06 $134 +$38 +28%
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix Jun 06 $8 +$21 +257%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $234 +$192 +82%
Will Hyperliquid reach $54 by December 31, 2026? May 28 $557 +$420 +75%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 01 $132 −$132 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? Mar 19 $269 −$269 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on January 31 Mar 11 $7 +$93 +1342%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on January 31? Mar 11 $7 +$93 +1329%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 31? Jan 31 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on January 31 Jan 31 $8 −$8 -100%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Dec 15 $24,879 −$24,878 -100%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Dec 13 $10,229 −$10,229 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 11 $1,950 +$1,050 +54%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? Dec 09 $5,917 −$5,917 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,200 on December 4? Dec 04 $441 −$441 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on November 24? Nov 24 $2,732 −$2,732 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on November 24? Nov 24 $867 −$866 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on November 24? Nov 24 $36 −$36 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 23 $90 −$90 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,000 and $3,100 on November 23 Nov 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Over $300M committed to the Monad public sale? Nov 23 $2,660 +$340 +13%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,900 and $3,000 on November 23 Nov 23 $294 −$294 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on November 23? Nov 23 $181 −$181 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on November 23? Nov 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on November 22? Nov 22 $225 −$225 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $88,000 on November 21? Nov 21 $77 −$77 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on November 21? Nov 21 $155 −$155 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on November 20? Nov 20 $710 −$710 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 November 17-23? Nov 20 $450 −$450 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on November 20? Nov 20 $650 −$650 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on November 18? Nov 19 $2,179 +$7,821 +359%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on November 18? Nov 18 $909 +$731 +80%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $96,000 and $98,000 on November 1 Nov 17 $359 −$359 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on November 17? Nov 17 $245 −$245 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on November 17? Nov 17 $1,276 −$1,276 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? SELL Yes 82¢ $405 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 18¢ $89 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $53 9d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $13 9d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $11 9d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $45 9d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $15 9d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 9d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $88 9d
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix BUY Yes 28¢ $8 9d
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix BUY Yes 28¢ $1 9d
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Pri BUY No 71¢ $51 9d
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Pri BUY No 83¢ $14 9d
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Pri BUY No 83¢ $50 9d
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Pri BUY No 83¢ $11 9d
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Pri BUY No 83¢ $8 9d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $410 14d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $234 18d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? BUY No 44¢ $132 76d
Will Hyperliquid reach $54 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $268 79d
Will Hyperliquid reach $54 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $4 80d
Will Hyperliquid reach $54 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $6 80d
Will Hyperliquid reach $54 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $17 80d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $148 81d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $375 82d
Will Hyperliquid reach $54 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $108 85d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? BUY Yes 62¢ $15 88d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? BUY Yes 62¢ $6 88d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? BUY Yes 62¢ $247 88d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,241.89 · official $1,241.89 (match) · 427 history records