Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:57:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F7 0xf73f…ee53 weather 386 markets active 4h ago coverage 9d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 9d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (344 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,806 (-4%) realized −$3,632 · open +$826
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -43% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -56% what you keep after slip
Net edge-56%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate25%181W / 534L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$194per market
Trades / day343.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$20,431now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 9d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 68% +$803
weather 32% +$21
tech 0% −$26
other 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (344 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-48.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 592 -51.4% -56.0% 21% 16% -42.2%
≤30d 715 -42.6% -48.1% 25% 17% -36.5%
≤90d 715 -42.6% -48.1% 25% 17% -36.5%
all 715 -42.6% -48.1% 25% 17% -36.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover343.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -48.1% 17% -36.5%
10% ← realistic here -53.1% 13% -42.6%
15% -57.6% 10% -48.1%
20% -61.8% 8% -53.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -43% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -80% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$29 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$20,431
Realized−$3,632
Unrealized+$826
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses181 / 534
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Open positions8
Markets (closed)715 / 386
History coverage9d ⚠
Avg bet$194
Trades / day343.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 715 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 84¢ 84¢ $16,720 $16,820 +$100 (+1%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes 72¢ 100¢ $2,165 $3,012 +$847 (+39%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 13¢ 17¢ $194 $251 +$57 (+29%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 39¢ 24¢ $234 $144 −$90 (-38%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 14¢ 8¢ $220 $123 −$97 (-44%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 15¢ 20¢ $43 $58 +$15 (+34%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? No 81¢ 96¢ $14 $17 +$3 (+19%)
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 492 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on May 26? Jun 15 $1 +$4 +544%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 12°C on May 27? Jun 15 $1 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on May 30? Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 29? Jun 15 $0 $0 +270%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on May 24? Jun 15 $0 $0 +82%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 15 $0 $0 +85%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on May 18? Jun 15 $0 $0 +400%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on May 24? Jun 15 $0 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 31? Jun 15 $0 $0 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 4? Jun 15 $0 $0 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on May 29? Jun 15 $0 $0 +137%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 23°C on May 21? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on May 22? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on May 14? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on May 15? Jun 15 $44 −$44 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on May 25? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on May 16? Jun 15 $34 −$34 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on May 16? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on May 12? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 23? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on May 28? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on May 29? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 14? Jun 15 $36 −$41 -116%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ma Jun 15 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on May 1? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 5? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on May 1? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on May 17? Jun 15 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ju Jun 15 $49 −$49 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C or higher on May 1 Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 17? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C or higher on May 26? Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 34°C on May 15? Jun 15 $7 −$2 -28%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on May 13? Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on May 25? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on May 30? Jun 15 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C or higher on May 29? Jun 15 $109 −$109 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 10°C on May 12? Jun 15 $65 −$65 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on May 27? Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on May 25? Jun 15 $60 −$60 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on May 13? Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on May 10? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on May 14? Jun 15 $22 −$20 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 2? Jun 15 $72 −$71 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 2? Jun 15 $54 −$54 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 10°C on May 28? Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C on May 15? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ma Jun 15 $61 −$61 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 13? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on May 13? Jun 15 $17 −$17 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $8,200 4h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 76¢ $1,520 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $8,520 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 85¢ $8,663 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 73¢ $2,617 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $2,014 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $17 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 78¢ $3,120 5h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 39¢ $213 5h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 39¢ $21 5h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $192 5h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 98¢ $64 6h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 98¢ $29 6h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $717 6h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $93 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 78¢ $191 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 78¢ $400 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 78¢ $667 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 79¢ $1,274 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 64¢ $142 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 64¢ $357 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 64¢ $77 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 64¢ $18 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 64¢ $386 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 64¢ $18 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 64¢ $151 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 64¢ $135 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 64¢ $606 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20,431.48 · official $20,422.22 (match) · 3500 history records