Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:04:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
F7 0xf73c…f222 other 6 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$27 (-28%) realized −$26 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -55% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -59% what you keep after slip
Net edge-59%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% −$23
crypto 29% $0
sports 5% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-59.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -54.8% -59.1% 40% 20% -45.7%
≤30d 5 -54.8% -59.1% 40% 20% -45.7%
≤90d 5 -54.8% -59.1% 40% 20% -45.7%
all 5 -54.8% -59.1% 40% 20% -45.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -59.1% 20% -45.7%
10% -63.0% 20% -50.9%
15% -66.6% 0% -55.7%
20% -69.9% 0% -60.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 99% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -40% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -55% · $-wt -40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$10 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$26
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage2d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $28 $28 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $28 $0 +0%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$3 +26%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $29 20m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 100¢ $28 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 26h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 46h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 79¢ $10 46h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.62 · official $27.62 (match) · 8 history records