Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:51:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
F7 0xf73c…ae8c other 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 65d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$5 (+3%) realized +$4 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate50%11W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$101now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$14
14 days+$12
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% +$5
crypto 21% −$2
sports 14% +$4
politics 5% −$2
world 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-21.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +5.8% -4.3% 71% 71% +26.9%
≤30d 14 -11.8% -20.2% 50% 50% +2.9%
≤90d 22 -13.3% -21.5% 50% 45% -2.6%
all 22 -13.3% -21.5% 50% 45% -2.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.5% 45% -2.6%
10% -29.0% 41% -11.9%
15% -35.9% 27% -20.4%
20% -42.2% 23% -28.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$101
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses11 / 11
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions18
Markets (closed)22 / 40
History coverage65d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+10%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Yes 67¢ 72¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 60¢ 57¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 54¢ 50¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-13%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 70¢ 70¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 57¢ 64¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+13%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 54¢ 55¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 54¢ 54¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +93%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +55%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $10 +$3 +27%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $10 +$3 +28%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +38%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 04 $3 −$3 -98%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 04 $1 +$1 +104%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? May 31 $3 −$3 -99%
Trump approval Up or Down this week? May 27 $2 −$1 -52%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $1 $0 -9%
Trump approval Up or Down this week? May 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Trump approval Up or Down this week? May 16 $1 +$1 +52%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? Apr 20 $1 $0 +11%
Hornets vs. Magic Apr 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Marco Rubio have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Apr 16 $1 −$1 -56%
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi Apr 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Trump say "Biden" during Fox interview on Wednesday? Apr 15 $1 $0 +8%
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 12+ times during F Apr 15 $1 $0 +33%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 13 $1 +$2 +177%
Military action against Iran ends on April 30, 2026? Apr 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $2 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 3h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 71¢ $1 17h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 99¢ $2 29h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 2d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 80¢ $13 2d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 81¢ $13 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 5d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 62¢ $10 5d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 60¢ $5 7d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 7d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 7d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $5 7d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 7d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 7d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 7d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 7d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 7d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $100.57 · official $100.57 (match) · 73 history records