Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:36:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F7 0xf738…d3ae other 123 markets active 2h ago coverage 478d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate36%44W / 79L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$9
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 69% −$9
other 18% −$1
politics 6% $0
sports 4% −$4
weather 1% +$2
crypto 1% $0
economics 0% $0
culture 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.2% -9.7% 11% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 28 +9.6% -0.8% 29% 7% -9.8%
≤90d 32 +8.2% -2.1% 25% 6% -9.8%
all 123 +1.1% -8.5% 36% 2% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 2% -9.8%
10% -17.3% 2% -18.4%
15% -25.3% 2% -26.3%
20% -32.6% 2% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

478d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses44 / 79
Open positions0
Markets (closed)123 / 123
History coverage478d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 123 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 19 $138 −$1 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $79 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $100 +$1 +2%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $77 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $78 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $78 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 14 $77 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $88 −$2 -2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $79 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $6 $0 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $170 −$6 -4%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $84 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $178 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $32 −$2 -6%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $343 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $92 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 31 $147 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $4 +$2 +40%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $160 +$7 +4%
Will Alberta join the US? May 29 $92 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 28 $77 +$1 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 27 $86 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 27 $90 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $82 −$1 -1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 25 $82 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $76 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 22 $45 −$6 -12%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 20 $89 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 19 $10 −$1 -8%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 18 $13 $0 +0%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 17 $4 $0 +0%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Dec 27 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 19 $1 $0 +1%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 18 $7 $0 +5%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 17 $7 $0 +2%
Will Girona FC win on 2025-12-21? Dec 16 $40 $0 +0%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 15 $16 $0 +0%
Will Real Oviedo win on 2025-12-20? Dec 15 $8 $0 +0%
Eagles vs. Commanders Dec 15 $8 $0 +0%
Will Bianca Censori rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 202 Dec 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $4 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $4 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $9 $0 -4%
Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election? Nov 14 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 19 $6 −$1 -23%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025? Sep 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 25 $4 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Sep 24 $6 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 77¢ $86 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 78¢ $87 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $26 18h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $53 18h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $79 22h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 54¢ $21 36h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 54¢ $3 36h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 54¢ $56 36h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $78 37h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 38¢ $51 46h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $6 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $18 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $27 2d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $77 3d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $77 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 70¢ $78 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 70¢ $78 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 70¢ $69 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 70¢ $9 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 70¢ $78 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $77 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $77 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $79 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $7 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 80¢ $88 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 43¢ $14 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 43¢ $65 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $79 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 66¢ $6 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 64¢ $6 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.28 · official $0.00 (match) · 439 history records