Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:41:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F7 0xf734…5291 crypto 475 markets active 2h ago coverage 254d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,785 (-9%) realized −$2,784 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate45%212W / 261L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$103est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$21
7 days−$14
14 days−$219
30 days−$100
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 79% −$1,064
sports 20% −$2,076
other 1% −$52
politics 0% −$48
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -6.8% -15.7% 75% 18% -7.9%
≤30d 100 +12.5% +1.8% 56% 25% -6.9%
≤90d 218 +10.1% -0.4% 55% 25% -18.4%
all 473 +2.8% -6.9% 45% 25% -17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.9% 25% -17.1%
10% -15.9% 18% -25.0%
15% -24.0% 14% -32.2%
20% -31.4% 10% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$22 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

254d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$2,784
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses212 / 261
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$103
Open positions2
Markets (closed)473 / 475
History coverage254d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 473 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 212 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 20 $126 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 20 $124 +$2 +2%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 20 $69 +$20 +29%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 19 $108 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 19 $107 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 19 $106 +$1 +1%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $149 −$67 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $68 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $67 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $66 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $65 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $65 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $60 +$1 +1%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan Jun 14 $50 +$10 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 14 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 14 $50 +$2 +4%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands Jun 14 $27 +$8 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 14 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 14 $42 $0 +1%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $39 +$6 +14%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 13 $38 $0 +1%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa Jun 13 $31 +$8 +24%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $29 +$4 +14%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland Jun 13 $19 −$2 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 13 $27 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 13 $27 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 13 $28 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 13 $27 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 13 $27 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 13 $26 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 13 $26 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 13 $26 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 13 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $3 +$6 +235%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $15 +$6 +41%
LoL: FENNEL vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Masters Group B Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 09 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $5 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 09 $11 −$10 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $126 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $124 1h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan SELL Afghanistan 14¢ $3 2h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan SELL Afghanistan 12¢ $9 2h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY Afghanistan 5¢ $5 4h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan SELL Afghanistan 11¢ $76 5h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY Afghanistan 9¢ $64 5h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 8h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $4 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $108 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $107 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $106 20h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh BUY Bangladesh 7¢ $5 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $27 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 34¢ $27 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $53 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 70¢ $53 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 90¢ $69 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $68 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $67 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $66 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $65 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $65 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $60 5d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 5d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan SELL Pakistan 12¢ $33 5d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan SELL Pakistan 12¢ $2 5d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan SELL Pakistan 12¢ $1 5d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan SELL Pakistan 12¢ $1 5d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan SELL Pakistan 12¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.00 · official $1.00 (match) · 1198 history records