Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T12:49:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F7 0xf734…e133 crypto 474 markets active 1h ago coverage 110d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 110d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$839 (+7%) realized +$839 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate56%265W / 209L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day28.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$80
7 days−$45
14 days−$24
30 days+$219
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$131
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -2.1% -11.4% 65% 58% -11.4%
≤30d 159 +3.2% -6.6% 73% 62% -7.1%
≤90d 454 +1.4% -8.3% 56% 51% -10.6%
all 474 +1.5% -8.2% 56% 51% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.2% 51% -10.6%
10% ← realistic here -17.0% 31% -19.1%
15% -25.0% 26% -26.9%
20% -32.3% 22% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$10 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$839
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses265 / 209
Open positions0
Markets (closed)474 / 474
History coverage110d ⚠
Avg bet$24
Trades / day28.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 474 Trades
no open positions (63 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8AM ET Jun 23 $6 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7AM ET Jun 23 $89 −$42 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6AM ET Jun 23 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5AM ET Jun 23 $66 −$8 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4AM ET Jun 23 $40 +$7 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2AM ET Jun 23 $44 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1AM ET Jun 23 $89 +$36 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11PM ET Jun 23 $42 −$19 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9PM ET Jun 23 $22 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8PM ET Jun 23 $16 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7PM ET Jun 22 $22 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3PM ET Jun 22 $113 −$25 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2PM ET Jun 22 $93 +$9 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1PM ET Jun 22 $22 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10AM ET Jun 22 $44 −$21 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9AM ET Jun 22 $147 +$19 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10PM ET Jun 22 $87 −$30 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8PM ET Jun 22 $22 −$22 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7PM ET Jun 21 $2 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2PM ET Jun 21 $7 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5AM ET Jun 21 $57 +$13 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8PM ET Jun 21 $40 +$6 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12PM ET Jun 20 $4 −$2 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3AM ET Jun 20 $128 +$21 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2AM ET Jun 20 $21 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12PM ET Jun 19 $32 +$7 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10AM ET Jun 19 $147 +$24 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6AM ET Jun 19 $22 −$4 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2AM ET Jun 19 $22 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8AM ET Jun 18 $63 −$9 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4AM ET Jun 18 $22 +$7 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1AM ET Jun 18 $4 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4PM ET Jun 17 $128 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET Jun 17 $22 −$19 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6AM ET Jun 17 $101 +$14 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET Jun 17 $127 −$11 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET Jun 17 $27 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET Jun 16 $22 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4PM ET Jun 16 $22 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET Jun 16 $22 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11AM ET Jun 16 $87 −$33 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2AM ET Jun 16 $22 −$11 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET Jun 15 $102 +$14 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET Jun 15 $136 +$58 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET Jun 15 $147 +$28 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4PM ET Jun 15 $82 +$13 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET Jun 15 $18 −$7 -40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $4 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $3 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7AM ET SELL Down 2¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7AM ET SELL Down 46¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $22 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6AM ET SELL Down 76¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5AM ET SELL Down 34¢ $24 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $27 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $22 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $22 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $22 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $9 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $12 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $21 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $18 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $10 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records