Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:01:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
F7 0xf731…55e4 politics 23 markets active 2h ago coverage 87d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 23L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$411per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$8
14 days−$8
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 60% −$6
sports 13% −$2
other 13% $0
crypto 13% −$2
world 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 14 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 23 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 23 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,071) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$0 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 23
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)23 / 23
History coverage87d
Avg bet$411
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 23 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ebba Busch be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Jun 28 $41 $0 -0%
Will Ahmad Vahidi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 28 $38 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Jun 27 $67 $0 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 27 $1,071 −$2 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 27 $1,098 $0 +0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 26 $1,078 −$2 -0%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June? Jun 26 $32 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 26 $63 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 26 $1,073 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $150 in June? Jun 26 $1,002 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 25 $1,114 −$2 -0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 25 $52 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $1,087 $0 +0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 25 $1,027 −$2 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $118 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 13 $44 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $26 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 06 $114 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Apr 06 $54 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 06 $21 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 02 $134 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 02 $22 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Apr 02 $76 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ebba Busch be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? SELL No 100¢ $41 1h
Will Ebba Busch be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? BUY No 100¢ $16 1h
Will Ahmad Vahidi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $38 2h
Will Ebba Busch be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? BUY No 100¢ $25 2h
Will Ahmad Vahidi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $38 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? SELL No 100¢ $67 26h
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,070 26h
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $27 26h
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,020 26h
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $26 26h
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $15 26h
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $25 27h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $803 27h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $273 27h
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $26 27h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,078 27h
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June? SELL No 100¢ $32 44h
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $63 44h
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $13 45h
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $22 45h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 45h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $170 45h
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $28 45h
Will Solana reach $150 in June? SELL No 100¢ $713 46h
Will Solana reach $150 in June? SELL No 100¢ $288 46h
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June? BUY No 100¢ $32 46h
Will Solana reach $150 in June? BUY No 100¢ $1,002 46h
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,113 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $52 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $27 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 73 history records