Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T03:29:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F7 0xf730…793f weather 786 markets active 1h ago coverage 109d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$44 (-0%) realized −$46 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate94%730W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day8.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$575now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$34
14 days+$34
30 days+$53
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% −$51
weather 29% +$22
sports 5% −$9
politics 3% +$7
crypto 1% −$28
world 0% +$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +6.1% -4.0% 100% 10% -3.9%
≤30d 32 +2.5% -7.3% 97% 3% -6.7%
≤90d 711 -1.2% -10.6% 95% 2% -9.7%
all 773 -1.4% -10.8% 94% 4% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 4% -9.9%
10% -19.3% 1% -18.6%
15% -27.1% 1% -26.4%
20% -34.3% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$9 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$575
Realized−$46
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses730 / 43
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions13
Markets (closed)773 / 786
History coverage109d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day8.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 773 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Democratic Republic of Congo win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 98¢ $60 $61 +$1 (+2%)
Will Ghana win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 95¢ $60 $60 +$0 (+1%)
Will Cape Verde win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 97¢ $60 $59 −$1 (-1%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $51 $51 −$0 (-0%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ivory Coast advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 98¢ 98¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Emma Raducanu be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? No 98¢ 97¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Colombia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 99¢ 98¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 98¢ $40 $42 +$2 (+5%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 97¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 92¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $60 +$5 +9%
Will Algeria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $60 +$5 +8%
Will New Zealand win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $60 +$2 +3%
Will Saudi Arabia win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $60 +$1 +2%
Will Tunisia win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $60 +$3 +5%
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $60 +$10 +16%
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $50 +$4 +7%
Will Paraguay win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $40 +$1 +2%
Will Qatar win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $60 +$1 +2%
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $30 +$2 +6%
Will Ted Cruz post 60-79 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $25 $0 +2%
Will Ted Cruz post 60-79 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $10 $0 +1%
Will White House post 100-119 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 06 $10 $0 +1%
Will White House post 200+ posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $25 +$1 +3%
Will Marta Kostyuk win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 04 $23 −$9 -39%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 03 $525 +$10 +2%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 02 $60 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $25 $0 +2%
Will Elina Svitolina win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 02 $25 +$1 +2%
Will White House post 120-139 posts from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $25 +$1 +5%
Will Raphael Collignon win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 31 $100 +$4 +4%
Will Victoria Mboko win the 2026 Women’s French Open? May 31 $50 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $25 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from May 19 to May 2 May 26 $25 +$1 +4%
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from May 19 to May 2 May 26 $25 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $25 +$1 +2%
Will Linda Nosková win the 2026 Women’s French Open? May 26 $23 $0 +2%
Will White House post 140-159 posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $25 +$1 +3%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 26 $50 +$4 +7%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 26 $8 +$1 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 25 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 74°F or higher on May 24? May 25 $25 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on May 24? May 25 $25 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on May 24? May 24 $25 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C or higher on May 24? May 24 $25 +$2 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on May 24? May 24 $40 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C or higher on May 24? May 24 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 24 $23 +$1 +2%
Will Arthur Fils win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 24 $25 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on May 24? May 24 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on May 23? May 24 $25 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on May 24? May 24 $25 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on May 23? May 24 $25 $0 +2%
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from May 15 to May 2 May 24 $25 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 24 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 24 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 24 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 24 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 24 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 24 $1 −$1 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Emma Raducanu be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY No 98¢ $50 59m
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $50 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $30 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $20 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $50 1h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 94¢ $50 1h
Will Ivory Coast advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 98¢ $50 1h
Will Colombia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 99¢ $50 2h
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 79¢ $20 3d
Will Cape Verde win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $60 8d
Will Ghana win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $20 9d
Will the Democratic Republic of Congo win Group K in the 2026 FIFA Wor BUY No 97¢ $20 9d
Will Algeria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $20 9d
Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $20 9d
Will Saudi Arabia win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $20 9d
Will New Zealand win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $20 9d
Will Tunisia win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $20 9d
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $50 9d
Will Paraguay win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $40 9d
Will Qatar win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $20 9d
Will Ted Cruz post 60-79 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $25 19d
Will Ted Cruz post 60-79 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $10 19d
Will Ghana win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $30 20d
Will the Democratic Republic of Congo win Group K in the 2026 FIFA Wor BUY No 96¢ $30 20d
Will Algeria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $30 20d
Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $30 20d
Will Saudi Arabia win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $30 20d
Will New Zealand win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $40 20d
Will Tunisia win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $30 20d
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $30 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $574.67 · official $574.23 (match) · 1676 history records