Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:39:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F7 0xf72c…f818 other 169 markets active 1h ago coverage 231d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 231d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$7,375 (+9%) realized +$7,761 · open −$386
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate34%52W / 100L
Whale WR45%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$501per market
Trades / day14.2pace
Fees−$147est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$2,102now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 231d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 42% −$2,228
other 41% −$2,493
sports 10% −$3,391
world 3% +$103
economics 3% −$251
culture 1% −$458
crypto 0% −$312
finance 0% −$127
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -0.8% -10.2% 41% 41% +0.0%
≤30d 63 +8.1% -2.2% 43% 40% -12.7%
≤90d 110 -9.7% -18.3% 35% 30% -21.5%
all 152 -10.2% -18.7% 34% 29% -21.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.7% 29% -21.8%
10% -26.5% 24% -29.3%
15% -33.6% 23% -36.1%
20% -40.1% 15% -42.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 45% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -26% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
12.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$174 vs −$180 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

231d coverage
Net worth$2,102
Realized+$7,761
Unrealized−$386
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses52 / 100
Whale WR (big bets)45%
Est. fees paid−$147
Open positions22
Markets (closed)152 / 169
History coverage231d ⚠
Avg bet$501
Trades / day14.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 152 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Palmeiras win Brazil Série A? Yes 51¢ 70¢ $518 $714 +$196 (+38%)
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $520 $425 −$95 (-18%)
World Cup: Total Tournament Goals O/U 264.5 Over 80¢ 91¢ $293 $333 +$39 (+13%)
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $229 $209 −$20 (-9%)
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $351 $194 −$156 (-45%)
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the August meeting? Yes 35¢ 39¢ $75 $83 +$8 (+11%)
Will Geraldo Alckmin finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $26 $43 +$16 (+62%)
Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the August meeting? Yes 44¢ 63¢ $25 $36 +$11 (+42%)
Will Jair Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $22 $22 −$0 (-1%)
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $31 $14 −$18 (-57%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 24¢ $8 $12 +$3 (+38%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $160 $3 −$157 (-98%)
Will Endrick Felipe Moreira de Sousa Pessoa be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $6 $2 −$4 (-58%)
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $31 $2 −$30 (-95%)
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $31 $2 −$30 (-95%)
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $31 $1 −$30 (-95%)
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $31 $1 −$30 (-95%)
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $31 $1 −$30 (-95%)
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $31 $1 −$30 (-95%)
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $31 $1 −$30 (-95%)
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the August meeting? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-42%)
Will the Bank of Brazil increase the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the August meeting? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting? Jun 17 $5,322 +$1,032 +19%
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin Jun 17 $6,154 +$1,161 +19%
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 16 $194 −$190 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $38 −$37 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $128 −$126 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $160 −$160 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $96 −$94 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $120 −$119 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $5 +$15 +325%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $13 +$17 +124%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $36 +$14 +40%
Will the Bank of Brazil increase the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin Jun 14 $4 $0 -10%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $15 +$15 +97%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $6 +$14 +250%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $38 +$12 +32%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $9 +$21 +238%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $19 +$21 +114%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $33 +$17 +52%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $3 +$17 +474%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $37 +$13 +36%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $36 +$14 +38%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $12 +$18 +158%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $4 +$16 +414%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $33 +$17 +50%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $35 +$15 +42%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $30 −$30 -99%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $14 −$14 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $6 −$6 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $16 −$15 -99%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $38 −$38 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $14 −$14 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $29 −$28 -99%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $15 −$15 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $33 +$17 +52%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 Jun 11 $6 −$6 -97%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $27 −$26 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 5.5 Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $43 −$42 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $370 −$370 -100%
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 02 $152 +$140 +92%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 02 $513 −$163 -32%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $283 −$210 -74%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 2¢ $73 1h
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin SELL No 16¢ $14 1h
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin SELL No 17¢ $101 2h
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin BUY No 18¢ $129 4h
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 17¢ $68 4h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 2¢ $286 4h
World Cup: Total Tournament Goals O/U 264.5 SELL Over 90¢ $629 27h
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin SELL Yes 87¢ $309 33h
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin SELL Yes 88¢ $138 33h
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin SELL Yes 89¢ $1 33h
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin SELL Yes 89¢ $9 33h
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin SELL Yes 89¢ $28 34h
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin SELL Yes 89¢ $1 34h
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin SELL Yes 89¢ $354 34h
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin BUY Yes 87¢ $836 35h
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting? SELL Yes 13¢ $4 35h
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting? SELL Yes 13¢ $35 35h
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting? SELL Yes 13¢ $13 35h
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting? SELL Yes 13¢ $3 35h
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting? SELL Yes 16¢ $172 35h
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting? SELL Yes 13¢ $11 35h
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting? SELL Yes 13¢ $13 35h
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 35h
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting? SELL Yes 13¢ $27 35h
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Joao Fonseca 38¢ $194 36h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 37¢ $38 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 2¢ $10 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 9¢ $46 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,102.24 · official $2,082.97 (match) · 3500 history records