Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:47:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
F7 0xf72c…993d sports 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 91d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$79 (-7%) realized +$109 · open −$188
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -56% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -60% what you keep after slip
Net edge-60%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$201per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$912now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 91d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$266
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-60.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 4 -44.9% -50.2% 50% 25% -92.7%
all 5 -56.0% -60.2% 40% 20% -93.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -60.2% 20% -93.0%
10% -64.0% 0% -93.6%
15% -67.4% 0% -94.2%
20% -70.6% 0% -94.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 74% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -92% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -56% · $-wt -92% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$26 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$912
Realized+$109
Unrealized−$188
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage91d
Avg bet$201
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Yes 44¢ 36¢ $1,100 $912 −$188 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 May 28 $61 −$60 -98%
Levante UD vs. Sevilla FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 22 $16 −$16 -98%
Wizards vs. Knicks Apr 22 $3 $0 +5%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Team Falcons (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Gro Apr 22 $3 $0 +15%
Illinois State Redbirds vs. Wake Forest Demon Deacons Mar 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $1,118 1h
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 50¢ $61 23d
Levante UD vs. Sevilla FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $16 59d
Wizards vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 95¢ $3 90d
Illinois State Redbirds vs. Wake Forest Demon Deacons BUY Wake Forest Demon Deacons 75¢ $3 90d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Team Falcons (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Gro BUY Team Falcons 87¢ $3 90d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $912.50 · official $987.50 · 8 history records