Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:42:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
F7 0xf72a…d9da weather 57 markets active 5h ago coverage 234d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable weather specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$24,230 (-6%) realized +$25,210 · open −$49,440
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate34%18W / 35L
Whale WR29%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7,195per market
Trades / day9.2pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$2,456now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 234d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 87% −$43,285
weather 9% −$9,087
other 5% −$4,940
politics 0% +$5
tech 0% −$82
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-23.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 21 -6.5% -15.4% 33% 14% -9.2%
≤90d 51 -16.6% -24.5% 31% 14% -12.1%
all 53 -15.8% -23.9% 34% 13% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.2 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.9% 13% -12.1%
10% ← realistic here -31.1% 4% -20.5%
15% -37.8% 4% -28.2%
20% -43.9% 2% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 55% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 29% (≥$2,224) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -21% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
13.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$447 vs −$485 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

234d coverage
Net worth$2,456
Realized+$25,210
Unrealized−$49,440
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses18 / 35
Whale WR (big bets)29%
Open positions4
Markets (closed)53 / 57
History coverage234d
Avg bet$7,195
Trades / day9.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 37¢ 11¢ $5,248 $1,559 −$3,690 (-70%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No $46,394 $895 −$45,499 (-98%)
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 87¢ $252 $0 −$252 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 02 $5,006 −$1,303 -26%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 01 $52 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 24? Jun 01 $17 −$17 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? May 31 $22,797 +$1,539 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $21,763 +$1,446 +7%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 29 $158,614 −$1,891 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on May 28? May 28 $778 +$56 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 24 $6,065 +$2,568 +42%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? May 24 $450 −$17 -4%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through July 31? May 24 $1,178 −$295 -25%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31? May 24 $1,997 −$641 -32%
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $1,627 −$58 -4%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? May 24 $700 −$21 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 24? May 24 $871 −$84 -10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? May 24 $600 −$30 -5%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? May 23 $2,700 −$278 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 23? May 23 $1,230 −$118 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on May 22? May 22 $910 +$8 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on May 23? May 22 $64 +$10 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C or below on May 23? May 21 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 18? May 20 $6 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 18? May 17 $6 $0 -4%
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? May 16 $1,161 −$942 -81%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? May 11 $2,224 −$178 -8%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? May 05 $197 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 28? Apr 28 $3,377 −$1,427 -42%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on April 25? Apr 27 $1,784 −$175 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 27? Apr 27 $4,620 −$660 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 27? Apr 27 $6 −$3 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 25? Apr 27 $1,988 +$166 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on April 24? Apr 27 $4,920 −$3,228 -66%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 27? Apr 27 $0 $0 +150%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 21°C on April 25? Apr 25 $2,315 −$30 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 25? Apr 25 $2,044 −$1,422 -70%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on April 25? Apr 25 $2,646 −$370 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on April 25? Apr 25 $2,180 −$47 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on April 25? Apr 25 $1,848 +$5 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on April 24? Apr 24 $1,834 +$395 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 20°C on April 25? Apr 24 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 23? Apr 24 $519 −$516 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 24? Apr 23 $7 −$6 -78%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on April 24? Apr 23 $13 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on April 24? Apr 23 $30 −$23 -79%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 23? Apr 23 $643 −$642 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 22? Apr 23 $1,053 −$965 -92%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 22 $8,998 +$1,844 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on April 22? Apr 22 $18 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 22? Apr 22 $85 +$4 +5%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Apr 22 $2,663 −$524 -20%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Apr 21 $1,296 −$4 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $192 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $0 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $0 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $386 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $1 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $2 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $0 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $0 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $0 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $0 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $0 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $0 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $0 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $0 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $0 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $0 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $0 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $2,071 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $500 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $240 12h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $619 21h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $6 22h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 97¢ $5 22h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 97¢ $5 22h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $2,320 22h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 97¢ $5 22h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $436 23h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $953 23h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 97¢ $3 23h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 97¢ $100 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,455.77 · official $2,455.77 (match) · 2691 history records