Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:41:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F7 0xf72a…682e crypto 844 markets active 2d ago coverage 38d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$609 (-14%) realized −$609 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate62%525W / 319L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day22.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$63
14 days+$63
30 days−$377
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$675
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 135 +5.8% -4.3% 73% 73% +4.6%
≤30d 709 -7.7% -16.5% 61% 61% -25.0%
≤90d 844 -7.5% -16.3% 62% 61% -23.6%
all 844 -7.5% -16.3% 62% 61% -23.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.3% 61% -23.6%
10% ← realistic here -24.3% 55% -30.9%
15% -31.7% 42% -37.6%
20% -38.4% 26% -43.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$609
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses525 / 319
Open positions0
Markets (closed)844 / 844
History coverage38d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day22.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 844 Trades
no open positions (292 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$17 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$14 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$25 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$14 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$16 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 13 $26 +$27 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 12 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 12 $26 +$11 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $25 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $26 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $26 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $25 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $26 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $21 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1503 history records