Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T02:29:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F7
0xf725…dd48
other · 8 markets active 1h ago
1.0score
−$1,008 -47%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,027 · open +$19
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$128
Realized−$1,027
Unrealized+$19
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)5 / 8
History coverage253d
Avg bet$268
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%
Chart Positions 3 History 5 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Under 43¢ 66¢ $34 $53 +$19 (+55%)
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Under 54¢ 55¢ $50 $51 +$0 (+1%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $24 $24 −$1 (-2%)
Monad market cap (FDV) >$14B one day after launch? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 30? No 7¢ 0¢ $120 $0 −$120 (-100%)
Will Monad perform an airdrop by December 15? No 3¢ 0¢ $965 $0 −$965 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Monad perform an airdrop by December 15? Nov 07 $970 −$964 -100%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by December 31? Nov 03 $665 −$69 -10%
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? Oct 29 $8 +$5 +62%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 30? Oct 27 $370 +$14 +4%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$14B one day after launch? Oct 17 $21 −$13 -59%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 96% −$1,032
sports 4% +$19
economics 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $25 1h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $35 1h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $16 1h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 43¢ $5 1h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 43¢ $30 1h
Will Monad perform an airdrop by December 15? SELL No 3¢ $3 218d
Will Monad perform an airdrop by December 15? SELL No 5¢ $1 221d
Will Monad perform an airdrop by December 31? SELL No 2¢ $182 222d
Will Monad perform an airdrop by December 31? SELL No 2¢ $0 222d
Will Monad perform an airdrop by December 31? SELL No 2¢ $1 222d
Will Monad perform an airdrop by December 31? SELL No 2¢ $7 223d
Will Monad perform an airdrop by December 31? SELL No 2¢ $6 223d
Will Monad perform an airdrop by December 15? BUY No 2¢ $183 224d
Will Monad perform an airdrop by December 15? BUY No 2¢ $13 224d
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 227d
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? SELL Yes 1¢ $10 227d
Will Monad perform an airdrop by December 15? BUY No 4¢ $19 229d
Will Monad perform an airdrop by December 15? BUY No 5¢ $3 229d
Will Monad perform an airdrop by December 15? BUY No 5¢ $7 229d
Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 30? BUY No 17¢ $3 229d
Will Monad perform an airdrop by December 31? SELL No 15¢ $3 229d
Will Monad perform an airdrop by December 31? SELL No 15¢ $7 229d
Will Monad perform an airdrop by December 15? SELL No 5¢ $1 229d
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 1¢ $8 229d
Will Monad perform an airdrop by December 15? BUY No 5¢ $22 229d
Will Monad perform an airdrop by December 15? BUY No 4¢ $9 229d
Will Monad perform an airdrop by December 31? SELL No 15¢ $31 229d
Will Monad perform an airdrop by December 15? BUY No 5¢ $1 230d
Will Monad perform an airdrop by December 15? BUY No 5¢ $1 230d
Will Monad perform an airdrop by December 31? SELL No 14¢ $1 230d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-30.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 5 -22.8% -30.2% 40% 40% -61.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.2% 40% -61.9%
10% -36.9% 20% -65.6%
15% -43.0% 20% -68.9%
20% -48.6% 20% -71.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $127.67 · official $127.67 (match) · 179 history records