trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | +0.7% | -8.9% | 50% | 0% | -13.1% |
| ≤30d | 3 | -14.2% | -22.3% | 33% | 0% | -41.5% |
| ≤90d | 6 | -26.5% | -33.5% | 17% | 0% | -47.3% |
| all | 16 | -12.8% | -21.1% | 31% | 25% | -25.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -21.1% | 25% | -25.8% |
| 10% | -28.6% | 19% | -32.9% |
| 15% | -35.5% | 19% | -39.4% |
| 20% | -41.9% | 12% | -45.3% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? | Yes | 19¢ | 14¢ | $856 | $612 | −$244 (-29%) |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | No | 74¢ | 74¢ | $332 | $332 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Jun 21 | $762 | −$53 | -7% |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | Jun 15 | $186 | +$15 | +8% |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? | Jun 11 | $3,506 | −$1,539 | -44% |
| Will Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026? | May 17 | $1,522 | −$838 | -55% |
| Iran leadership change by April 30? | Mar 24 | $853 | −$46 | -5% |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? | Mar 23 | $2,720 | −$1,527 | -56% |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? | Mar 04 | $570 | −$20 | -4% |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? | Mar 01 | $1,033 | +$1,367 | +132% |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | Feb 28 | $695 | +$559 | +80% |
| Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | Feb 23 | $362 | +$177 | +49% |
| US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? | Feb 17 | $332 | −$332 | -100% |
| US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026? | Feb 07 | $60 | −$60 | -100% |
| US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026? | Feb 06 | $160 | −$160 | -100% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | Feb 01 | $802 | −$92 | -12% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | Jan 29 | $108 | +$13 | +12% |
| US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | Jan 23 | $599 | −$25 | -4% |