Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:24:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F7 0xf721…2f6e other 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$202 (-30%) realized −$202 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate14%2W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit21%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% −$102
sports 38% −$194
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-40.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -33.7% -40.0% 14% 14% -49.4%
≤30d 14 -33.7% -40.0% 14% 14% -49.4%
≤90d 14 -33.7% -40.0% 14% 14% -49.4%
all 14 -33.7% -40.0% 14% 14% -49.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.0% 14% -49.4%
10% -45.7% 7% -54.3%
15% -51.0% 7% -58.7%
20% -55.8% 7% -62.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -44% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -44% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -74% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$33 · ×1.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$202
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses2 / 12
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage6d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit21%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $26 −$25 -97%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 20 $101 −$100 -99%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $21 −$20 -97%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $102 −$102 -100%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? Jun 20 $10 +$67 +650%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 2 Australia? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $103 −$41 -40%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $199 +$37 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 7¢ $26 1h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 52¢ $101 2h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 2h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 2h
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 2h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 9¢ $21 3h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 23¢ $51 27h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $102 27h
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 2.5 SELL Over 5¢ $62 27h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 2 Australia? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 28h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 28h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 28h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 28h
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 2.5 BUY Over 7¢ $103 29h
Germany leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $236 6d
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 84¢ $199 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 22 history records