Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:31:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F7 0xf71a…f366 sports 318 markets active 1h ago coverage 40d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$186 (-5%) realized −$186 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%111W / 181L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day11.4pace
Fees−$47est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$87
7 days+$33
14 days−$29
30 days−$137
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% −$126
other 17% −$43
crypto 4% +$17
weather 1% +$4
politics 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-27.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -13.7% -21.9% 39% 39% -1.1%
≤30d 205 -23.6% -30.9% 38% 38% -15.4%
≤90d 292 -19.9% -27.6% 38% 38% -14.7%
all 292 -19.9% -27.6% 38% 38% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.6% 38% -14.7%
10% -34.5% 37% -22.8%
15% -40.8% 36% -30.3%
20% -46.6% 33% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$7 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$186
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses111 / 181
Est. fees paid−$47
Open positions1
Markets (closed)292 / 318
History coverage40d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day11.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 292 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Yes 53¢ 54¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 161 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 29 $15 +$14 +89%
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 29 $5 −$3 -58%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $9 +$29 +312%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $2 −$2 -97%
Brazil vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? Jun 29 $15 −$5 -33%
Keito Nakamura: 1+ goals Jun 29 $3 −$3 -97%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 29 $3 −$3 -98%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 29 $3 −$3 -98%
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 28 $19 −$3 -16%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $3 −$3 -97%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $9 +$8 +80%
Jordan vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score AND Will Algeria vs. Austria Jun 28 $25 +$60 +240%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 27 $6 −$6 -97%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $21 +$9 +43%
Colombia leading at halftime? Jun 24 $9 −$9 -98%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 24 $49 −$48 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 24 $7 +$4 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 24 $2 $0 -4%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 23 $24 −$24 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $16 −$16 -98%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $14 −$14 -99%
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 23 $3 −$3 -98%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 23 $7 −$7 -99%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Draw at halftime? Jun 23 $9 +$6 +64%
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) Jun 23 $13 +$14 +109%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 7.5 Corners Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $3 −$3 -98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ assists Jun 23 $2 −$2 -98%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $11 +$14 +129%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -97%
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals Jun 23 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$14 +134%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 23 $5 +$5 +93%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $11 +$14 +127%
Norway vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? Jun 23 $9 +$8 +82%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $15 +$13 +83%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 22 $6 +$3 +50%
Argentina to win the second half? Jun 22 $12 +$16 +128%
Argentina vs. Austria: Draw at halftime? Jun 22 $12 +$14 +113%
Egypt leading at halftime? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 22 $5 +$12 +238%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $51 +$30 +58%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 22 $59 −$59 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $19 −$19 -100%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $15 +$5 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: France (-1.5) AND Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? AND Will M BUY 8¢ $15 1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $10 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners AND Will Germany BUY 44¢ $5 1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Netherlands O/U 3.5 Corners AND Will Netherla BUY 28¢ $5 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) AND Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 5.5 Corne BUY 31¢ $10 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score AND Netherlands vs. Morocco: BUY 7¢ $17 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $29 1h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL No 100¢ $8 1h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 97¢ $38 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 1h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY No 25¢ $2 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 23¢ $9 2h
Brazil vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 2h
Brazil vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? SELL No 77¢ $14 2h
Keito Nakamura: 1+ goals BUY Yes 9¢ $3 3h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 32¢ $3 3h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals BUY Yes 37¢ $3 3h
Brazil vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? BUY No 56¢ $10 3h
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $15 3h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-29 BUY 18¢ $12 3h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 23h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 23h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? SELL No 95¢ $30 23h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY No 51¢ $16 24h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 10¢ $3 40h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals AND Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY 14¢ $7 41h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? SELL 22¢ $17 41h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY 11¢ $9 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.09 · official $73.02 · 524 history records