Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T06:35:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F7
0xf716…e4cf
sports · 23 markets active 1h ago
2.5score
+$35 +6%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$36 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$173
Realized+$36
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses10 / 6
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions7
Markets (closed)16 / 23
History coverage2d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day13.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 7 History 16 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$36
7 days+$36
14 days+$36
30 days+$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Team Falcons 73¢ 76¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+3%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Spirit 82¢ 82¢ $25 $26 +$0 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Vitality 71¢ 70¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Legacy 54¢ 54¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner G2 53¢ 52¢ $25 $24 −$0 (-2%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner FURIA 55¢ 54¢ $25 $24 −$0 (-2%)
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner FUT Esports 64¢ 62¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-3%)
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner PARIVISION 57¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner FURIA 60¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Team Falcons 67¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Vitality 86¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $26 +$7 +29%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $26 +$12 +48%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $25 +$19 +73%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $26 −$25 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $25 −$25 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $26 −$25 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $25 +$7 +27%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $25 +$10 +40%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $25 +$15 +57%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $26 +$15 +60%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $26 +$16 +65%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $26 +$17 +67%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $26 +$19 +76%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $26 −$1 -3%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $25 −$1 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 100% +$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 82¢ $26 1h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 55¢ $25 1h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY Legacy 54¢ $25 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 71¢ $25 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 73¢ $25 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 53¢ $25 1h
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 64¢ $25 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 86¢ $25 23h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 77¢ $26 23h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 67¢ $26 23h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 67¢ $26 23h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY PARIVISION 57¢ $25 23h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 57¢ $25 23h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 60¢ $26 23h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL PARIVISION 56¢ $25 46h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY PARIVISION 59¢ $26 46h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 63¢ $25 46h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 56¢ $26 46h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 71¢ $25 46h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 62¢ $26 46h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Team Falcons 62¢ $25 46h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 63¢ $25 46h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY MOUZ 60¢ $26 46h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 78¢ $25 46h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 56¢ $26 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +8.5% -1.9% 62% 62% -1.5%
≤30d 16 +8.5% -1.9% 62% 62% -1.5%
≤90d 16 +8.5% -1.9% 62% 62% -1.5%
all 16 +8.5% -1.9% 62% 62% -1.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover13.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.9% 62% -1.5%
10% -11.3% 62% -11.0%
15% -19.8% 50% -19.6%
20% -27.7% 38% -27.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $173.45 · official $174.10 (match) · 35 history records