Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:06:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F7 0xf715…bbf0 sports 1050 markets active 1h ago coverage 99d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 99d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,184 (-16%) realized −$3,157 · open −$27
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate26%263W / 751L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day22.9pace
Fees−$66est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$941now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$152
7 days−$49
14 days−$63
30 days−$58
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% −$2,941
other 14% +$110
world 0% +$4
crypto 0% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-23.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +4.6% -5.4% 40% 29% -14.2%
≤30d 47 +3.6% -6.3% 47% 30% -13.8%
≤90d 718 -14.1% -22.3% 31% 27% -19.4%
all 1014 -15.3% -23.3% 26% 23% -23.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.3% 23% -23.5%
10% ← realistic here -30.7% 22% -30.8%
15% -37.4% 20% -37.5%
20% -43.5% 19% -43.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$16 · ×2.19 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$941
Realized−$3,157
Unrealized−$27
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses263 / 751
Est. fees paid−$66
Open positions36
Markets (closed)1014 / 1050
History coverage99d ⚠
Avg bet$19
Trades / day22.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 36 History 1014 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 62¢ 58¢ $132 $125 −$7 (-6%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 74¢ 70¢ $112 $107 −$5 (-5%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 56¢ 62¢ $81 $89 +$8 (+10%)
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $68 $68 −$0 (-1%)
Will Egypt reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 65¢ 66¢ $57 $58 +$1 (+2%)
Will Uruguay reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 65¢ 64¢ $52 $52 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 72¢ $52 $48 −$4 (-8%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 62¢ $49 $46 −$3 (-5%)
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 72¢ 66¢ $43 $39 −$4 (-9%)
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 82¢ 83¢ $33 $33 +$0 (+1%)
Will Austria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $31 $27 −$4 (-12%)
Will Saudi Arabia win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-0%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 74¢ $24 $26 +$2 (+8%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 22¢ 14¢ $27 $16 −$10 (-39%)
Will Austria reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+0%)
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 29¢ 34¢ $13 $15 +$3 (+21%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 50¢ 53¢ $14 $15 +$1 (+6%)
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 30¢ 32¢ $13 $14 +$1 (+7%)
Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 46¢ 46¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 36¢ 38¢ $12 $13 +$1 (+5%)
Will Ghana win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 95¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+1%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 25¢ 22¢ $14 $12 −$2 (-15%)
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+3%)
Will Haiti win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 85¢ 78¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 17 $20 −$1 -5%
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $47 +$4 +9%
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $61 +$12 +19%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$1 -20%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 17 $5 $0 -7%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 17 $9 −$1 -10%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 17 $11 −$2 -18%
Will Czechia win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $9 +$2 +22%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 17 $12 $0 -4%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 17 $26 −$1 -4%
Spread: Czechia (-2.5) Jun 17 $162 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $24 $0 +1%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $38 +$9 +24%
France to score first vs. Senegal? Jun 16 $16 −$16 -98%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $21 −$21 -99%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $37 −$36 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $27 −$26 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $38 −$37 -99%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 −$19 -98%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $89 +$2 +2%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 16 $65 +$3 +4%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $6 +$3 +48%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$13 +276%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $13 +$12 +93%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $90 $0 -0%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 14 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $15 +$63 +414%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $22 +$32 +146%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $3 +$8 +262%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $7 +$8 +109%
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $4 $0 -11%
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $2 $0 -3%
Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $1 $0 +5%
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $3 $0 +11%
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $5 +$1 +11%
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $3 +$1 +42%
Will Uzbekistan win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $1 +$2 +142%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 03 $8 −$7 -98%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 03 $10 −$9 -98%
Will Jordan win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $75 $0 +1%
Will Curaçao win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $104 $0 +0%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $50 +$4 +9%
Spread: Kashiwa Reysol (-2.5) Apr 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Al Hazem SC vs. Al Riyadh Saudi Club: O/U 3.5 Apr 30 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Kashima Antlers win on 2026-04-24? Apr 30 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 65¢ $52 1h
Will Egypt reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 65¢ $58 1h
Will Austria reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 31¢ $14 1h
Will Austria reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 1h
Will Turkiye reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 24¢ $6 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 74¢ $19 1h
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $43 1h
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $73 1h
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 82¢ $33 1h
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 76¢ $69 1h
Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 46¢ $14 1h
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY Yes 17¢ $5 1h
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $18 1h
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 71¢ $29 1h
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 59¢ $62 1h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? SELL Yes 21¢ $4 2h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL No 45¢ $4 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 57¢ $8 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 43¢ $9 2h
Will Czechia win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $11 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 36¢ $12 2h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? SELL No 86¢ $24 2h
Spread: Czechia (-2.5) SELL Mexico 97¢ $161 2h
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 66¢ $24 2h
Will Iraq win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $24 2h
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 17¢ $12 2h
Will Austria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $18 3h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 23¢ $2 5h
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $8 5h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 23¢ $1 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $941.22 · official $941.22 (match) · 3500 history records