Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:38:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5

score

F7 0xf714…83d7 other 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real

Total PnL +$76 (+29%) realized +$79 · open −$3

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip

Net edge-3%after slip

Net WR60%break-even

Win rate60%3W / 2L

Drawdown38%max

Avg bet$33per market

Trades / day6.0pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$87now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +60%

net ROI/market (all)+0.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	5	+11.3%	+0.7%	60%	60%	+29.6%
≤30d	5	+11.3%	+0.7%	60%	60%	+29.6%
≤90d	5	+11.3%	+0.7%	60%	60%	+29.6%
all	5	+11.3%	+0.7%	60%	60%	+29.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover6.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+0.7%	60%	+29.6%
10%	-8.9%	60%	+17.2%
15%	-17.7%	60%	+5.9%
20%	-25.8%	60%	-4.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 41% · top 2 77% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +43% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +11% · $-wt +43% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$36 vs −$17 · ×2.14 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×3.21 per $1 lost it wins $3.21

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$87

Realized+$79

Unrealized−$3

Win rate (resolved)60%

Wins / losses3 / 2

Open positions3

Markets (closed)5 / 8

History coverage1d

Avg bet$33

Trades / day6.0

Drawdown38%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 5 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	3¢	3¢	$60	$59	−$1 (-2%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18?	Yes	8¢	8¢	$20	$19	−$1 (-6%)
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa?	Yes	11¢	10¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-5%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$30	+$40	+133%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$29	−$29	-100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$61	+$44	+72%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$48	+$25	+52%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$5	−$5	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	3¢	$62	1h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa?	BUY Yes	11¢	$10	4h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	8¢	$21	4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	77¢	$29	19h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	42¢	$30	19h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	57¢	$61	19h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	65¢	$48	32h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	3¢	$5	33h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $87.18 · official $87.18 (match) · 14 history records