Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:45:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
F7 0xf70f…3c97 sports 789 markets active 6d ago coverage 319d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$38,691 (+3%) realized +$38,691 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate71%559W / 230L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,479per market
Trades / day6.9pace
Fees−$4,185est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$3,155
14 days+$5,402
30 days+$5,402
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% +$52,075
crypto 18% −$18,864
other 8% +$353
world 7% −$77
politics 1% −$636
culture 0% +$2,211
finance 0% −$2
tech 0% −$90
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -42.0% -47.5% 25% 12% -30.0%
≤30d 28 -5.4% -14.4% 57% 36% +1.9%
≤90d 334 -22.6% -30.0% 54% 28% -8.6%
all 789 -3.9% -13.1% 71% 35% -6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 35% -6.5%
10% -21.4% 21% -15.4%
15% -29.0% 12% -23.6%
20% -35.9% 9% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$1,705) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +11% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$361 vs −$724 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

319d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$38,691
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses559 / 230
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$4,185
Open positions0
Markets (closed)789 / 789
History coverage319d
Avg bet$1,479
Trades / day6.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 789 Trades
no open positions (24 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 11 $2,626 −$122 -5%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $2,051 −$2,019 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 201.5 Jun 10 $4,240 −$165 -4%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $998 −$992 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 10 $1,267 +$878 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 10 $518 −$500 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 10 $304 −$300 -99%
LoL: EDward Gaming Youth Team vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy (BO3) - As Jun 10 $2,026 +$64 +3%
LoL: Frites Esports Club vs BOMBA Team (BO3) - EMEA Masters Play-In Jun 09 $997 +$273 +27%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 09 $1,109 +$993 +90%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 196.5 Jun 09 $1,003 +$89 +9%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $991 −$973 -98%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $1,874 +$740 +40%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $2,254 +$3,596 +160%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 4 Winner Jun 06 $2,196 −$99 -4%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $3,958 +$3,769 +95%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 06 $5,675 +$234 +4%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $3,365 +$2,565 +76%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 06 $1,458 −$1,430 -98%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $797 −$782 -98%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 06 $71 −$4 -5%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $785 −$778 -99%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 06 $91 +$22 +24%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $576 +$98 +17%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 200.5 Jun 06 $400 +$25 +6%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 194.5 Jun 06 $291 +$21 +7%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - LES Playoffs Jun 05 $635 +$54 +9%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $494 +$142 +29%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 228.5 May 16 $4,409 −$4,393 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 14 $6,099 −$6,058 -99%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner May 14 $2,460 +$3,642 +148%
LoL: LNG Esports vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 14 $2,232 −$2,191 -98%
LoL: LNG Esports vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 14 $1,240 −$735 -59%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner May 14 $510 +$58 +11%
LoL: Team WE vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner May 13 $857 +$40 +5%
LoL: Oh My God vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana May 13 $1,731 +$455 +26%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner May 13 $730 +$274 +38%
LoL: T1 vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 2 Winner May 13 $600 +$127 +21%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 213.5 May 13 $4,989 +$1,453 +29%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 12 $499 −$488 -98%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 12 $11,454 +$3,052 +27%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 12 $2,877 −$2,852 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea May 12 $5,368 +$8,958 +167%
LoL: Top Esports vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 12 $1,258 −$1,246 -99%
LoL: Top Esports vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 2 Winner May 12 $1,473 +$62 +4%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game May 12 $548 +$8 +1%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - May 12 $846 +$44 +5%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 - Game 2 Winner May 12 $51 +$15 +29%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Playoff May 12 $1,252 +$76 +6%
Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 214.5 May 12 $9,614 +$7,680 +80%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 52¢ $2,504 6d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 53¢ $2,626 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 95¢ $6 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $2,045 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 201.5 SELL Over 81¢ $2,051 6d
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD - Game 1 Winner BUY Fluxo W7M 81¢ $998 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 201.5 BUY Over 84¢ $2,146 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $200 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $15 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $15 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $15 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $15 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $32 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $15 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $16 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $100 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $326 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $11 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $198 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $198 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $28 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $18 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2406 history records