Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:08:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F7 0xf70f…1b9a other 456 markets active 2h ago coverage 110d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 109d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$189 (-0%) realized −$191 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -55% what you keep after slip
Net edge-55%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate26%220W / 634L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$133per market
Trades / day31.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit17%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 110d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% −$322
crypto 11% −$983
politics 0% $0
world 0% +$2
weather 0% −$9
sports 0% −$4
tech 0% −$1
economics 0% $0
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-47.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 414 -64.6% -68.0% 4% 3% -88.7%
≤30d 494 -61.7% -65.4% 8% 6% -80.0%
≤90d 735 -48.0% -52.9% 21% 10% -33.0%
all 854 -41.9% -47.4% 26% 13% -21.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -47.4% 13% -21.5%
10% ← realistic here -52.5% 8% -29.0%
15% -57.1% 6% -35.8%
20% -61.3% 5% -42.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -42% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -20% → late -64% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$24 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized−$191
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses220 / 634
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)854 / 456
History coverage110d ⚠
Avg bet$133
Trades / day31.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 854 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 74¢ 82¢ $18 $21 +$2 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 19 to January 21, 2026? Jun 15 $169 −$169 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 24, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on July 31? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - July 28, 7AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jun 15 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Al Najmah Saudi Club win on 2025-12-29? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 24, 10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 25, 4AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 3AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 24, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 8, 1AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 25, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from January 24 to January 26, 2026 Jun 15 $111 −$111 -100%
Will Al Khaleej Saudi Club win on 2025-12-29? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 660-679 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 26, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 20 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026? Jun 15 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jun 15 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 620-639 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 9, 9AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Al Riyadh Saudi Club win on 2025-12-29? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 20 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from January 10 to January 12, 2026 Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 20 Jun 15 $450 −$450 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 8, 11PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from January 24 to January 26, 2026 Jun 15 $111 −$111 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 640-659 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 80¢ $20 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $37 3h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $41 15h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $41 15h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 80¢ $16 16h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $9 22h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $25 23h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $36 23h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $38 24h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $18 42h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $19 42h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 43h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 46h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $38 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $6 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $8 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 46¢ $0 2d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $48 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $45 3d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $42 3d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.62 · official $20.62 (match) · 3500 history records