Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:50:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F7 0xf70e…81df crypto 527 markets active 1h ago coverage 55d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 54d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (55 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$154 (-0%) realized −$162 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate89%470W / 56L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,086per market
Trades / day55.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$352now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 55d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$7,307
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (55 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 86 +0.0% -9.5% 98% 3% -11.0%
≤30d 320 -0.7% -10.2% 92% 8% -13.4%
≤90d 526 +2.5% -7.2% 89% 17% -10.1%
all 526 +2.5% -7.2% 89% 17% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover55.3 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.2% 17% -10.1%
10% -16.1% 7% -18.7%
15% ← realistic here -24.2% 4% -26.6%
20% -31.6% 3% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$2,546) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$146 vs −$1,357 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$352
Realized−$162
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses470 / 56
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)526 / 527
History coverage55d ⚠
Avg bet$2,086
Trades / day55.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 526 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? Yes 69¢ 70¢ $345 $352 +$8 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 16? Jun 17 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 16? Jun 17 $291 +$9 +3%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 on June 16? Jun 17 $499 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 16? Jun 17 $291 +$9 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 16? Jun 16 $1,091 +$9 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? Jun 16 $2,472 +$28 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $48 +$2 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $4,995 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 16? Jun 16 $990 +$10 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $1,116 +$6 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $1,996 +$4 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 on June 15? Jun 16 $591 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 on June 15? Jun 16 $997 +$3 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 15? Jun 16 $18 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 15? Jun 16 $1,985 +$15 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 15? Jun 16 $986 +$14 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 on June 15? Jun 16 $497 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 15? Jun 15 $1,996 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $3,909 +$91 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $2,970 +$30 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 15? Jun 15 $992 +$9 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 15? Jun 15 $2,297 +$7 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 15? Jun 15 $2,692 −$2,692 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $8 +$2 +31%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $38 +$2 +5%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 June 8-14? Jun 15 $200 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 June 8-14? Jun 15 $477 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 June 8-14? Jun 15 $499 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $686 +$14 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $1,254 +$30 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $2,149 +$28 +1%
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on June 14? Jun 14 $999 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 14? Jun 14 $121 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 14? Jun 14 $837 +$7 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 14? Jun 14 $993 +$7 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $4,995 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 14? Jun 14 $6,988 +$12 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? Jun 14 $694 +$41 +6%
Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 13? Jun 14 $9 +$1 +8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 13? Jun 14 $297 +$3 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 13? Jun 14 $41 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,650 on June 13? Jun 14 $48 +$2 +5%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 13? Jun 14 $535 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 13? Jun 14 $325 +$7 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 13? Jun 14 $9 +$1 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $999 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 13? Jun 13 $1,509 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $1,995 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 13? Jun 13 $1,990 +$10 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 69¢ $352 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $254 7h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $245 8h
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $291 15h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? BUY No 95¢ $48 18h
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $4 18h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $2,472 18h
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $281 18h
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $14 18h
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $2 18h
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $4 18h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 100¢ $332 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 100¢ $1,881 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 100¢ $45 18h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 100¢ $64 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 100¢ $9 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 100¢ $11 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 100¢ $20 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 100¢ $30 18h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $4,995 18h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 100¢ $511 18h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $498 19h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 98¢ $89 19h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 98¢ $20 19h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 98¢ $99 19h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $990 21h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $156 23h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $341 23h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 16? BUY Yes 96¢ $97 27h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $399 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $352.50 · official $350.00 (match) · 3500 history records