Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:48:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F7 0xf70d…be64 crypto 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 156d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$98 (-11%) realized −$85 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate61%19W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$213now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$59
7 days−$41
14 days−$41
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% +$28
crypto 39% +$1
finance 8% −$63
sports 4% −$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -12.9% -21.2% 60% 47% -19.2%
≤30d 15 -12.9% -21.2% 60% 47% -19.2%
≤90d 15 -12.9% -21.2% 60% 47% -19.2%
all 31 -0.5% -10.0% 61% 52% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 52% -16.0%
10% -18.6% 32% -24.0%
15% -26.5% 23% -31.3%
20% -33.7% 6% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$14 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

156d coverage
Net worth$213
Realized−$85
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses19 / 12
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)31 / 34
History coverage156d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $189 $179 −$10 (-5%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $17 $14 −$3 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $75 +$50 +66%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 +$9 +46%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $30 +$15 +50%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $33 −$23 -70%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $57 −$33 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2PM ET Jun 18 $25 −$4 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1PM ET Jun 18 $41 +$3 +8%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $56 −$52 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$2 +30%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 8AM ET Jan 19 $22 −$10 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 7AM ET Jan 19 $20 +$4 +21%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 19, 7AM ET Jan 19 $10 −$2 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 8PM ET Jan 19 $15 +$6 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 7PM ET Jan 19 $21 −$17 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 8AM ET Jan 18 $20 −$4 -20%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 18, 7AM ET Jan 18 $5 +$10 +209%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 7AM ET Jan 18 $15 +$4 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 6AM ET Jan 18 $25 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 8PM ET Jan 18 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 7PM ET Jan 18 $29 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 6PM ET Jan 17 $15 +$4 +25%
Solana Up or Down - January 17, 5PM ET Jan 17 $20 −$7 -33%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 17, 4PM ET Jan 17 $5 −$1 -12%
Solana Up or Down - January 17, 4PM ET Jan 17 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 4PM ET Jan 17 $5 +$2 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $42 48m
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 72¢ $30 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 92¢ $39 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 65¢ $17 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 65¢ $27 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 39¢ $19 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $20 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 40¢ $25 2h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $7 16h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $29 45h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $45 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $30 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $41 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 2d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 11¢ $10 2d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $11 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 18¢ $11 2d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $13 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 19¢ $12 2d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $9 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 28¢ $9 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $17 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $20 3d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $51 3d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $9 3d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $62 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9PM ET SELL Up 58¢ $6 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $212.88 · official $212.88 (match) · 169 history records