Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:25:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F7 0xf70d…b753 crypto 529 markets active 5d ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$206 (-2%) realized −$206 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate60%316W / 213L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day16.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$20
14 days−$20
30 days−$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$459
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +11.5% +0.8% 50% 50% -21.5%
≤30d 12 +11.5% +0.8% 50% 50% -21.5%
≤90d 529 -3.9% -13.0% 60% 52% -13.5%
all 529 -3.9% -13.0% 60% 52% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 52% -13.5%
10% -21.3% 42% -21.7%
15% -28.9% 30% -29.3%
20% -35.9% 22% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +43% → late -51% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$15 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$206
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses316 / 213
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)529 / 529
History coverage66d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day16.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 529 Trades
no open positions (20 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$11 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$11 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 13 $8 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$5 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$2 +178%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 13 $19 −$18 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 13 $25 +$9 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 13 $35 −$7 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$18 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$8 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET May 03 $15 −$14 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET May 03 $9 +$5 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET May 03 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET May 03 $6 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 03 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Apr 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Apr 20 $8 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Apr 20 $6 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Apr 20 $27 −$26 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Apr 20 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Apr 20 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Apr 20 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Apr 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Apr 20 $11 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Apr 20 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Apr 20 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Apr 20 $118 −$118 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Apr 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Apr 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Apr 20 $38 +$10 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Apr 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Apr 20 $18 −$4 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Apr 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Apr 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Apr 20 $20 +$6 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Apr 20 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Apr 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Apr 20 $22 −$8 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Apr 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Apr 20 $24 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Apr 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Apr 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Apr 20 $66 −$8 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Apr 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Apr 20 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Apr 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Apr 20 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Apr 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $8 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $19 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $8 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $34 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $25 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Down 69¢ $29 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $25 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $28 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $18 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $15 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $14 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $4 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $7 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $7 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $6 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $4 45d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1325 history records